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Bundesliga

Referee: S Jablonski

Heidenheim

U S U T S

1–1

Full-time

Mainz

U S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heidenheim Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

1,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 23%

29%

16%

Points per game

1,2

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

55%

42%

Both score Ø 65%

71%

58%

Average goals

3,1

2,6

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,94 xG 1,40

46% Possession 54%

16 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heidenheim 11. · Mainz 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	32	26	6	0	+59	+38.8	84
2	Bayern Munich	32	22	3	7	+49	+55.0	69
3	Stuttgart	32	21	4	7	+34	+32.1	67
4	RB Leipzig	32	19	6	7	+38	+26.2	63
5	Dortmund	32	17	9	6	+24	+10.6	60
6	Ein Frankfurt	32	11	12	9	+1	-6.8	45
7	Freiburg	32	11	8	13	-12	-1.1	41
8	Hoffenheim	32	11	7	14	-8	-10.1	40
9	Augsburg	32	10	9	13	-8	-8.1	39
10	Werder Bremen	32	10	8	14	-9	-11.0	38
11	Heidenheim	31	9	10	12	-8	-21.0	37
12	Wolfsburg	32	10	7	15	-11	-3.5	37
13	M'gladbach	32	7	12	13	-7	-6.4	33
14	Bochum	32	7	12	13	-24	-15.4	33
15	Union Berlin	32	8	6	18	-25	-11.0	30
16	Mainz	31	5	13	13	-17	-2.1	28
17	FC Koln	32	4	12	16	-30	-29.2	24
18	Darmstadt	32	3	8	21	-46	-36.9	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	16	13	3	0	+35	+26.9	42
2	Bayern Munich	16	13	1	2	+39	+35.7	40
3	Stuttgart	16	12	3	1	+31	+24.7	39
4	RB Leipzig	16	11	3	2	+28	+20.8	36
5	Dortmund	16	9	3	4	+11	+11.8	30
6	Ein Frankfurt	16	7	7	2	+8	+6.0	28
7	Augsburg	16	6	6	4	+1	-1.4	24
8	Bochum	16	5	8	3	+2	+4.6	23
9	Wolfsburg	16	6	4	6	+2	+0.9	22
10	Heidenheim	15	6	4	5	+1	-6.1	22
11	Werder Bremen	16	6	4	6	+0	-1.5	22
12	Freiburg	16	5	6	5	-2	+7.6	21
13	Mainz	16	5	5	6	+2	+9.5	20
14	M'gladbach	16	5	5	6	+1	+5.4	20
15	Hoffenheim	16	5	5	6	-2	+4.3	20
16	Union Berlin	16	6	2	8	-9	-4.5	20
17	FC Koln	16	3	4	9	-14	-11.2	13
18	Darmstadt	16	1	3	12	-23	-11.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	16	13	3	0	+24	+11.9	42
2	Dortmund	16	8	6	2	+13	-1.3	30
3	Bayern Munich	16	9	2	5	+10	+19.3	29
4	Stuttgart	16	9	1	6	+3	+7.4	28
5	RB Leipzig	16	8	3	5	+10	+5.4	27
6	Hoffenheim	16	6	2	8	-6	-14.3	20
7	Freiburg	16	6	2	8	-10	-8.7	20
8	Ein Frankfurt	16	4	5	7	-7	-12.8	17
9	Werder Bremen	16	4	4	8	-9	-9.5	16
10	Augsburg	16	4	3	9	-9	-6.8	15
11	Heidenheim	16	3	6	7	-9	-14.9	15
12	Wolfsburg	16	4	3	9	-13	-4.5	15
13	M'gladbach	16	2	7	7	-8	-11.8	13
14	FC Koln	16	1	8	7	-16	-18.0	11
15	Darmstadt	16	2	5	9	-23	-25.5	11
16	Union Berlin	16	2	4	10	-16	-6.5	10
17	Bochum	16	2	4	10	-26	-20.0	10
18	Mainz	15	0	8	7	-19	-11.6	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.