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Bundesliga

Referee: F Zwayer

Mainz

U T S U S

4–1

Full-time

Hoffenheim

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Hoffenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,3

3,7

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 25%

14%

36%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

43%

79%

Both score Ø 70%

54%

86%

Average goals

2,6

3,6

Scored

0,9

1,7

Conceded

1,6

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,15 xG 0,55

47% Possession 53%

23 Shots 5

8 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 16. · Hoffenheim 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	28	24	4	0	+50	+35.1	76
2	Bayern Munich	28	19	3	6	+44	+50.5	60
3	Stuttgart	28	19	3	6	+30	+30.3	60
4	RB Leipzig	28	16	5	7	+31	+24.4	53
5	Dortmund	28	15	8	5	+22	+11.0	53
6	Ein Frankfurt	28	10	12	6	+7	-3.9	42
7	Augsburg	29	10	9	10	+1	-4.2	39
8	Hoffenheim	28	10	6	12	-5	-8.6	36
9	Freiburg	28	10	6	12	-12	-2.4	36
10	Heidenheim	28	8	9	11	-8	-20.9	33
11	M'gladbach	28	7	10	11	-5	-5.1	31
12	Werder Bremen	28	8	7	13	-8	-8.5	31
13	Union Berlin	29	8	5	16	-20	-10.4	29
14	Wolfsburg	28	7	7	14	-13	-2.3	28
15	Bochum	28	5	11	12	-25	-18.8	26
16	Mainz	28	4	11	13	-20	-3.0	23
17	FC Koln	28	4	10	14	-26	-28.1	22
18	Darmstadt	28	2	8	18	-43	-35.2	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	14	12	2	0	+30	+24.5	38
2	Bayern Munich	14	11	1	2	+36	+31.4	34
3	Stuttgart	14	10	3	1	+26	+24.1	33
4	RB Leipzig	14	9	3	2	+22	+19.0	30
5	Dortmund	14	8	2	4	+7	+11.5	26
6	Ein Frankfurt	14	6	7	1	+10	+5.3	25
7	Augsburg	15	6	6	3	+4	+0.1	24
8	Heidenheim	14	6	4	4	+2	-5.3	22
9	Freiburg	14	5	5	4	-1	+6.1	20
10	Union Berlin	14	6	2	6	-4	-3.8	20
11	M'gladbach	14	5	4	5	+2	+5.7	19
12	Bochum	14	4	7	3	+1	+2.2	19
13	Werder Bremen	14	5	3	6	-1	-0.1	18
14	Mainz	14	4	4	6	-1	+8.8	16
15	Wolfsburg	14	4	4	6	-2	-0.4	16
16	Hoffenheim	14	4	4	6	-3	+1.8	16
17	FC Koln	14	3	3	8	-12	-10.5	12
18	Darmstadt	14	1	3	10	-21	-10.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	14	12	2	0	+20	+10.6	38
2	Dortmund	14	7	6	1	+15	-0.5	27
3	Stuttgart	14	9	0	5	+4	+6.3	27
4	Bayern Munich	14	8	2	4	+8	+19.1	26
5	RB Leipzig	14	7	2	5	+9	+5.4	23
6	Hoffenheim	14	6	2	6	-2	-10.4	20
7	Ein Frankfurt	14	4	5	5	-3	-9.2	17
8	Freiburg	14	5	1	8	-11	-8.4	16
9	Augsburg	14	4	3	7	-3	-4.3	15
10	Werder Bremen	14	3	4	7	-7	-8.3	13
11	M'gladbach	14	2	6	6	-7	-10.8	12
12	Wolfsburg	14	3	3	8	-11	-1.9	12
13	Heidenheim	14	2	5	7	-10	-15.6	11
14	FC Koln	14	1	7	6	-14	-17.6	10
15	Union Berlin	15	2	3	10	-16	-6.6	9
16	Darmstadt	14	1	5	8	-22	-24.5	8
17	Mainz	14	0	7	7	-19	-11.8	7
18	Bochum	14	1	4	9	-26	-21.0	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.