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Bundesliga

Referee: B Dankert

Mainz

S U U T U

0–1

Full-time

Heidenheim

S T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Heidenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,3

3,3

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 18%

29%

Points per game

0,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

57%

64%

Both score Ø 61%

57%

64%

Average goals

2,7

3,6

Scored

0,9

1,5

Conceded

1,9

2,1

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,63 xG 0,53

65% Possession 35%

16 Shots 5

4 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 20

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 17. · Heidenheim 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	14	11	3	0	+27	+12.9	36
2	Bayern Munich	13	10	2	1	+30	+28.7	32
3	Stuttgart	14	10	1	3	+18	+21.2	31
4	RB Leipzig	14	9	2	3	+19	+11.6	29
5	Dortmund	14	7	4	3	+5	+0.1	25
6	Hoffenheim	14	7	2	5	+4	-1.6	23
7	Ein Frankfurt	14	5	6	3	+8	-0.7	21
8	Freiburg	14	6	3	5	-6	-1.7	21
9	M'gladbach	15	4	5	6	-3	-3.4	17
10	Augsburg	14	4	5	5	-4	-0.1	17
11	Wolfsburg	14	5	1	8	-7	-2.5	16
12	Werder Bremen	15	4	3	8	-7	-7.1	15
13	Heidenheim	14	4	2	8	-9	-15.3	14
14	Bochum	14	2	7	5	-14	-6.8	13
15	Union Berlin	13	3	1	9	-13	-3.0	10
16	FC Koln	14	2	4	8	-14	-15.3	10
17	Mainz	14	1	6	7	-14	-2.3	9
18	Darmstadt	14	2	3	9	-20	-14.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stuttgart	8	6	1	1	+16	+15.9	19
2	Leverkusen	7	6	1	0	+16	+11.6	19
3	RB Leipzig	7	5	2	0	+16	+8.3	17
4	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+22	+15.9	16
5	Dortmund	8	5	1	2	+2	+4.1	16
6	Wolfsburg	7	4	1	2	+4	+0.3	13
7	Heidenheim	7	4	1	2	+2	-4.4	13
8	Werder Bremen	8	4	1	3	+1	-0.6	13
9	Ein Frankfurt	7	3	3	1	+6	+0.8	12
10	Augsburg	7	3	3	1	+2	+1.4	12
11	Freiburg	6	3	2	1	+2	+3.7	11
12	M'gladbach	8	3	2	3	+1	+0.3	11
13	Bochum	6	1	4	1	+0	+3.6	7
14	Hoffenheim	7	2	1	4	-2	-1.2	7
15	Union Berlin	7	2	1	4	-6	-2.0	7
16	FC Koln	7	1	2	4	-4	-6.2	5
17	Darmstadt	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.4	5
18	Mainz	6	1	1	4	-6	+0.8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	7	5	2	0	+11	+1.3	17
2	Bayern Munich	7	5	1	1	+8	+12.7	16
3	Hoffenheim	7	5	1	1	+6	-0.5	16
4	RB Leipzig	7	4	0	3	+3	+3.4	12
5	Stuttgart	6	4	0	2	+2	+5.3	12
6	Freiburg	8	3	1	4	-8	-5.5	10
7	Dortmund	6	2	3	1	+3	-4.0	9
8	Ein Frankfurt	7	2	3	2	+2	-1.5	9
9	M'gladbach	7	1	3	3	-4	-3.6	6
10	Bochum	8	1	3	4	-14	-10.4	6
11	Augsburg	7	1	2	4	-6	-1.6	5
12	Mainz	8	0	5	3	-8	-3.1	5
13	FC Koln	7	1	2	4	-10	-9.1	5
14	Darmstadt	7	1	1	5	-15	-12.2	4
15	Union Berlin	6	1	0	5	-7	-1.1	3
16	Wolfsburg	7	1	0	6	-11	-2.8	3
17	Werder Bremen	7	0	2	5	-8	-6.5	2
18	Heidenheim	7	0	1	6	-11	-10.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.