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Bundesliga

Referee: B Brand

Mainz

S U S S U

1–1

Full-time

FC Koln

T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz FC Koln

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,5

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,7

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 15%

17%

13%

Points per game

0,9

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

43%

33%

Both score Ø 54%

57%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,64 xG 2,54

39% Possession 61%

16 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 6

7 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 16. · FC Koln 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	31	25	6	0	+55	+38.1	81
2	Bayern Munich	31	22	3	6	+51	+55.0	69
3	Stuttgart	31	20	4	7	+32	+32.1	64
4	RB Leipzig	31	19	5	7	+38	+27.0	62
5	Dortmund	31	16	9	6	+20	+9.6	57
6	Ein Frankfurt	31	11	12	8	+5	-6.0	45
7	Freiburg	31	11	7	13	-12	-1.0	40
8	Augsburg	31	10	9	12	-4	-7.1	39
9	Hoffenheim	31	11	6	14	-8	-10.9	39
10	Werder Bremen	31	10	7	14	-9	-10.5	37
11	Heidenheim	30	8	10	12	-9	-21.9	34
12	Wolfsburg	31	9	7	15	-14	-5.3	34
13	M'gladbach	31	7	11	13	-7	-6.9	32
14	Union Berlin	31	8	6	17	-24	-10.4	30
15	Bochum	31	6	12	13	-25	-15.9	30
16	Mainz	30	5	12	13	-17	-1.2	27
17	FC Koln	30	4	10	16	-30	-30.2	22
18	Darmstadt	30	3	8	19	-42	-34.2	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	16	13	3	0	+35	+26.9	42
2	Bayern Munich	16	13	1	2	+39	+35.7	40
3	Stuttgart	15	11	3	1	+29	+24.7	36
4	RB Leipzig	16	11	3	2	+28	+20.8	36
5	Ein Frankfurt	15	7	7	1	+12	+6.7	28
6	Dortmund	15	8	3	4	+7	+10.9	27
7	Augsburg	16	6	6	4	+1	-1.4	24
8	Bochum	16	5	8	3	+2	+4.6	23
9	Heidenheim	15	6	4	5	+1	-6.1	22
10	Werder Bremen	15	6	3	6	+0	-1.0	21
11	Freiburg	16	5	6	5	-2	+7.6	21
12	M'gladbach	16	5	5	6	+1	+5.4	20
13	Union Berlin	15	6	2	7	-8	-4.0	20
14	Mainz	15	5	4	6	+2	+10.4	19
15	Wolfsburg	15	5	4	6	-1	-0.9	19
16	Hoffenheim	15	5	4	6	-2	+3.4	19
17	FC Koln	15	3	3	9	-14	-11.3	12
18	Darmstadt	15	1	3	11	-22	-10.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	15	12	3	0	+20	+11.2	39
2	Dortmund	16	8	6	2	+13	-1.3	30
3	Bayern Munich	15	9	2	4	+12	+19.3	29
4	Stuttgart	16	9	1	6	+3	+7.4	28
5	RB Leipzig	15	8	2	5	+10	+6.2	26
6	Hoffenheim	16	6	2	8	-6	-14.3	20
7	Freiburg	15	6	1	8	-10	-8.6	19
8	Ein Frankfurt	16	4	5	7	-7	-12.8	17
9	Werder Bremen	16	4	4	8	-9	-9.5	16
10	Augsburg	15	4	3	8	-5	-5.8	15
11	Wolfsburg	16	4	3	9	-13	-4.5	15
12	M'gladbach	15	2	6	7	-8	-12.3	12
13	Heidenheim	15	2	6	7	-10	-15.8	12
14	Darmstadt	15	2	5	8	-20	-23.7	11
15	FC Koln	15	1	7	7	-16	-18.9	10
16	Union Berlin	16	2	4	10	-16	-6.5	10
17	Mainz	15	0	8	7	-19	-11.6	8
18	Bochum	15	1	4	10	-27	-20.6	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.