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Bundesliga

Referee: M Fritz

Bayern Munich

S S U T S

4–2

Full-time

Dortmund

S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

83%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,2

4,0

Scored

3,0

2,5

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+1,0

This season — Bundesliga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 61%

70%

52%

Points per game

2,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 79%

83%

74%

Both score Ø 70%

78%

61%

Average goals

4,3

3,4

Scored

2,9

2,1

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

65% Possession 35%

25 Shots 4

9 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 0

0 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 2. · Dortmund 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	24	16	5	3	+26	53
2	Bayern Munich	23	16	4	3	+35	52
3	Wolfsburg	24	12	9	3	+17	45
4	Ein Frankfurt	24	11	10	3	+14	43
5	Leverkusen	24	11	7	6	+16	40
6	Dortmund	23	12	3	8	+17	39
7	Union Berlin	23	8	10	5	+10	34
8	Freiburg	24	9	7	8	-1	34
9	Stuttgart	24	8	9	7	+8	33
10	M'gladbach	24	8	9	7	+3	33
11	Hoffenheim	24	8	6	10	-2	30
12	Werder Bremen	22	6	8	8	-6	26
13	Augsburg	24	7	5	12	-13	26
14	Hertha	24	5	6	13	-15	21
15	FC Koln	23	5	6	12	-20	21
16	Mainz	24	4	6	14	-21	18
17	Bielefeld	22	5	3	14	-23	18
18	Schalke 04	24	1	7	16	-45	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	12	10	1	1	+15	31
2	Bayern Munich	11	8	3	0	+26	27
3	Wolfsburg	11	7	4	0	+11	25
4	Ein Frankfurt	12	6	6	0	+9	24
5	Dortmund	11	6	2	3	+11	20
6	Union Berlin	12	4	7	1	+9	19
7	Leverkusen	12	5	4	3	+7	19
8	Freiburg	13	5	4	4	+4	19
9	M'gladbach	13	5	4	4	+4	19
10	Hoffenheim	12	5	2	5	+5	17
11	Werder Bremen	11	3	4	4	-3	13
12	Stuttgart	11	2	6	3	+2	12
13	Augsburg	12	3	3	6	-8	12
14	Bielefeld	11	4	0	7	-9	12
15	Hertha	12	3	2	7	-11	11
16	Mainz	12	2	2	8	-10	8
17	FC Koln	11	1	3	7	-9	6
18	Schalke 04	13	1	3	9	-18	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	8	1	3	+9	25
2	RB Leipzig	12	6	4	2	+11	22
3	Leverkusen	12	6	3	3	+9	21
4	Stuttgart	13	6	3	4	+6	21
5	Wolfsburg	13	5	5	3	+6	20
6	Dortmund	12	6	1	5	+6	19
7	Ein Frankfurt	12	5	4	3	+5	19
8	Union Berlin	11	4	3	4	+1	15
9	Freiburg	11	4	3	4	-5	15
10	FC Koln	12	4	3	5	-11	15
11	M'gladbach	11	3	5	3	-1	14
12	Augsburg	12	4	2	6	-5	14
13	Werder Bremen	11	3	4	4	-3	13
14	Hoffenheim	12	3	4	5	-7	13
15	Hertha	12	2	4	6	-4	10
16	Mainz	12	2	4	6	-11	10
17	Bielefeld	11	1	3	7	-14	6
18	Schalke 04	11	0	4	7	-27	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.