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Bundesliga

Referee: D Siebert

Bayern Munich

U S S S S

3–1

Full-time

Dortmund

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

2,3

2,0

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+1,0

This season — Bundesliga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 72%

77%

67%

Points per game

2,4

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 77%

80%

73%

Both score Ø 68%

63%

73%

Average goals

3,9

4,0

Scored

3,0

2,5

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

59% Possession 41%

13 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 1

4 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 1. · Dortmund 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	30	23	3	4	+60	72
2	Dortmund	30	20	3	7	+33	63
3	Leverkusen	31	16	7	8	+28	55
4	RB Leipzig	31	16	6	9	+33	54
5	Freiburg	31	14	10	7	+15	52
6	Union Berlin	31	14	8	9	+2	50
7	FC Koln	31	13	10	8	+2	49
8	Hoffenheim	31	13	7	11	+5	46
9	Ein Frankfurt	31	10	10	11	-2	40
10	Mainz	31	11	6	14	+2	39
11	M'gladbach	31	10	8	13	-13	38
12	Wolfsburg	31	11	4	16	-12	37
13	Bochum	30	10	6	14	-13	36
14	Augsburg	30	8	8	14	-13	32
15	Hertha	30	8	5	17	-34	29
16	Stuttgart	30	6	10	14	-17	28
17	Bielefeld	31	5	11	15	-25	26
18	Greuther Furth	31	3	8	20	-51	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	12	1	2	+31	37
2	Dortmund	15	12	0	3	+24	36
3	RB Leipzig	16	10	2	4	+22	32
4	Mainz	15	9	4	2	+20	31
5	FC Koln	16	9	4	3	+7	31
6	Union Berlin	15	9	4	2	+7	31
7	Freiburg	16	8	5	3	+10	29
8	Hoffenheim	15	8	4	3	+13	28
9	Leverkusen	15	8	2	5	+13	26
10	Bochum	15	7	4	4	+5	25
11	Wolfsburg	16	7	2	7	+4	23
12	Augsburg	15	6	4	5	+1	22
13	M'gladbach	15	6	4	5	+0	22
14	Ein Frankfurt	16	4	6	6	-2	18
15	Stuttgart	15	5	3	7	-5	18
16	Hertha	15	5	3	7	-10	18
17	Bielefeld	15	2	8	5	-8	14
18	Greuther Furth	16	3	5	8	-16	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	11	2	2	+29	35
2	Leverkusen	16	8	5	3	+15	29
3	Dortmund	15	8	3	4	+9	27
4	Freiburg	15	6	5	4	+5	23
5	RB Leipzig	15	6	4	5	+11	22
6	Ein Frankfurt	15	6	4	5	+0	22
7	Union Berlin	16	5	4	7	-5	19
8	FC Koln	15	4	6	5	-5	18
9	Hoffenheim	16	5	3	8	-8	18
10	M'gladbach	16	4	4	8	-13	16
11	Wolfsburg	15	4	2	9	-16	14
12	Bielefeld	16	3	3	10	-17	12
13	Bochum	15	3	2	10	-18	11
14	Hertha	15	3	2	10	-24	11
15	Stuttgart	15	1	7	7	-12	10
16	Augsburg	15	2	4	9	-14	10
17	Mainz	16	2	2	12	-18	8
18	Greuther Furth	15	0	3	12	-35	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.