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Bundesliga

Referee: R Hartmann

Union Berlin

S S T U T

3–1

Full-time

Hoffenheim

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin Hoffenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,2

3,8

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

2,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

This season — Bundesliga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 43%

53%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

53%

60%

Both score Ø 57%

53%

60%

Average goals

2,9

Scored

1,6

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,87 xG 0,99

52% Possession 48%

23 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 5

7 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Union Berlin 5. · Hoffenheim 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	10	5	1	+36	-0.1	35
2	Freiburg	15	9	3	3	+8	–	30
3	RB Leipzig	16	8	5	3	+9	+0.1	29
4	Ein Frankfurt	15	8	3	4	+8	–	27
5	Union Berlin	15	8	3	4	+4	–	27
6	Dortmund	15	8	1	6	+4	–	25
7	Wolfsburg	15	6	5	4	+4	–	23
8	M'gladbach	15	6	4	5	+4	–	22
9	Werder Bremen	15	6	3	6	-2	–	21
10	Mainz	15	5	4	6	-5	–	19
11	Hoffenheim	15	5	3	7	+0	–	18
12	Leverkusen	15	5	3	7	-1	–	18
13	FC Koln	15	4	5	6	-8	–	17
14	Augsburg	15	4	3	8	-8	–	15
15	Hertha	15	3	5	7	-3	–	14
16	Stuttgart	15	3	5	7	-9	–	14
17	Bochum	15	4	1	10	-22	–	13
18	Schalke 04	15	2	3	10	-19	–	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	8	6	2	0	+14	+0.1	20
2	M'gladbach	8	6	0	2	+10	–	18
3	Bayern Munich	7	5	2	0	+20	–	17
4	Union Berlin	7	5	2	0	+8	–	17
5	Dortmund	7	5	1	1	+10	–	16
6	Freiburg	7	5	1	1	+7	–	16
7	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	1	3	+5	–	13
8	Wolfsburg	7	3	3	1	+5	–	12
9	Leverkusen	8	3	2	3	+6	–	11
10	FC Koln	7	3	2	2	+2	–	11
11	Stuttgart	8	3	2	3	+1	–	11
12	Werder Bremen	8	3	1	4	+1	–	10
13	Hertha	8	2	4	2	+1	–	10
14	Hoffenheim	8	3	1	4	-1	–	10
15	Bochum	7	3	1	3	-5	–	10
16	Mainz	7	1	4	2	-1	–	7
17	Schalke 04	8	2	1	5	-10	–	7
18	Augsburg	8	1	2	5	-8	–	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	5	3	1	+16	-0.1	18
2	Ein Frankfurt	7	4	2	1	+3	–	14
3	Freiburg	8	4	2	2	+1	–	14
4	Mainz	8	4	0	4	-4	–	12
5	Wolfsburg	8	3	2	3	-1	–	11
6	Werder Bremen	7	3	2	2	-3	–	11
7	Augsburg	7	3	1	3	+0	–	10
8	Union Berlin	8	3	1	4	-4	–	10
9	RB Leipzig	8	2	3	3	-5	–	9
10	Dortmund	8	3	0	5	-6	–	9
11	Hoffenheim	7	2	2	3	+1	–	8
12	Leverkusen	7	2	1	4	-7	–	7
13	FC Koln	8	1	3	4	-10	–	6
14	Hertha	7	1	1	5	-4	–	4
15	M'gladbach	7	0	4	3	-6	–	4
16	Stuttgart	7	0	3	4	-10	–	3
17	Bochum	8	1	0	7	-17	–	3
18	Schalke 04	7	0	2	5	-9	–	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.