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Premier League

Referee: D England

Aston Villa

S U T S S

2–4

Full-time

Leicester

S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,5

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 33%

40%

25%

Points per game

1,4

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

50%

60%

Both score Ø 48%

50%

45%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,4

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–3

1,71 xG 2,57

63% Possession 37%

19 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 5

9 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

11 Corners 3

2 Offside 8

10 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 11. · Leicester 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	20	16	2	2	+28	+2.1	50
2	Man City	20	14	3	3	+33	+3.6	45
3	Newcastle	20	10	9	1	+22	+0.9	39
4	Man United	20	12	3	5	+7	-1.3	39
5	Tottenham	21	11	3	7	+9	-1.6	36
6	Fulham	22	9	5	8	+2	-0.6	32
7	Brighton	19	9	4	6	+10	+1.2	31
8	Brentford	20	7	9	4	+4	-0.1	30
9	Chelsea	21	8	6	7	+1	+0.9	30
10	Liverpool	19	8	5	6	+9	-0.2	29
11	Aston Villa	20	8	4	8	-4	+0.8	28
12	Crystal Palace	20	6	6	8	-9	-2.5	24
13	Nott'm Forest	20	5	6	9	-19	+0.5	21
14	Leicester	20	5	3	12	-7	-1.2	18
15	Leeds	19	4	6	9	-7	+0.1	18
16	West Ham	20	5	3	12	-8	+1.7	18
17	Everton	21	4	6	11	-12	-1.0	18
18	Wolves	20	4	5	11	-18	-2.0	17
19	Bournemouth	20	4	5	11	-23	-0.5	17
20	Southampton	20	4	3	13	-18	-0.8	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	11	9	1	1	+26	+3.6	28
2	Arsenal	9	8	1	0	+15	+2.9	25
3	Newcastle	10	6	4	0	+13	–	22
4	Man United	9	7	1	1	+12	–	22
5	Liverpool	10	6	3	1	+14	-0.2	21
6	Brentford	10	5	4	1	+10	–	19
7	Tottenham	10	6	0	4	+6	–	18
8	Chelsea	10	5	3	2	+6	+0.7	18
9	Fulham	11	5	3	3	+2	+0.1	18
10	Aston Villa	10	5	2	3	+4	–	17
11	Nott'm Forest	10	4	3	3	+1	–	15
12	Crystal Palace	11	4	3	4	-5	-2.5	15
13	Brighton	9	4	2	3	+6	–	14
14	Leeds	10	3	4	3	+1	+0.1	13
15	West Ham	10	4	1	5	-1	+1.7	13
16	Bournemouth	10	3	3	4	-1	-0.5	12
17	Everton	11	3	2	6	-4	+0.8	11
18	Wolves	10	3	2	5	-8	–	11
19	Leicester	10	2	3	5	-1	-1.2	9
20	Southampton	10	1	3	6	-8	-0.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	11	8	1	2	+13	-0.8	25
2	Tottenham	11	5	3	3	+3	-1.6	18
3	Newcastle	10	4	5	1	+9	+0.9	17
4	Man City	9	5	2	2	+7	–	17
5	Brighton	10	5	2	3	+4	+1.2	17
6	Man United	11	5	2	4	-5	-1.3	17
7	Fulham	11	4	2	5	+0	-0.7	14
8	Chelsea	11	3	3	5	-5	+0.2	12
9	Brentford	10	2	5	3	-6	-0.1	11
10	Aston Villa	10	3	2	5	-8	+0.8	11
11	Crystal Palace	9	2	3	4	-4	–	9
12	Leicester	10	3	0	7	-6	–	9
13	Southampton	10	3	0	7	-10	–	9
14	Liverpool	9	2	2	5	-5	–	8
15	Everton	10	1	4	5	-8	-1.7	7
16	Wolves	10	1	3	6	-10	-2.0	6
17	Nott'm Forest	10	1	3	6	-20	+0.5	6
18	West Ham	10	1	2	7	-7	–	5
19	Leeds	9	1	2	6	-8	–	5
20	Bournemouth	10	1	2	7	-22	–	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.