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Serie A

Referee: D Ghersini

Fiorentina

T S T S S

4–0

Full-time

Salernitana

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Salernitana

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,0

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,8

2,0

Scored

2,3

0,2

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,7

This season — Serie A · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 35%

56%

13%

Points per game

1,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 51%

63%

38%

Average goals

3,1

2,8

Scored

1,7

0,7

Conceded

1,4

2,1

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

70% Possession 30%

17 Shots 11

9 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 5

1 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 6. · Salernitana 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	16	12	2	2	+17	38
2	Inter	16	11	4	1	+24	37
3	Napoli	16	11	3	2	+22	36
4	Atalanta	16	10	4	2	+16	34
5	Juventus	16	8	3	5	+6	27
6	Fiorentina	16	9	0	7	+5	27
7	Roma	16	8	1	7	+5	25
8	Lazio	16	7	4	5	+2	25
9	Bologna	16	7	3	6	-4	24
10	Verona	16	6	5	5	+4	23
11	Empoli	16	7	2	7	-3	23
12	Sassuolo	16	5	5	6	+1	20
13	Torino	16	5	4	7	+3	19
14	Sampdoria	17	5	3	9	-8	18
15	Udinese	16	3	7	6	-6	16
16	Venezia	16	4	3	9	-14	15
17	Spezia	16	3	3	10	-19	12
18	Cagliari	16	1	7	8	-13	10
19	Genoa	17	1	7	9	-16	10
20	Salernitana	16	2	2	12	-22	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	8	6	1	1	+12	19
2	Milan	8	6	1	1	+9	19
3	Inter	7	5	2	0	+14	17
4	Lazio	8	5	2	1	+10	17
5	Verona	8	5	1	2	+7	16
6	Bologna	9	5	1	3	+4	16
7	Roma	8	5	1	2	+3	16
8	Fiorentina	7	5	0	2	+7	15
9	Torino	8	4	2	2	+7	14
10	Juventus	8	4	1	3	+2	13
11	Atalanta	8	3	3	2	+6	12
12	Udinese	8	2	4	2	-1	10
13	Empoli	9	3	1	5	-6	10
14	Sassuolo	8	2	3	3	+0	9
15	Spezia	8	2	2	4	-2	8
16	Sampdoria	9	2	2	5	-7	8
17	Cagliari	9	1	4	4	-3	7
18	Venezia	7	2	1	4	-3	7
19	Salernitana	8	1	1	6	-11	4
20	Genoa	8	0	3	5	-9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	8	7	1	0	+10	22
2	Inter	9	6	2	1	+10	20
3	Milan	8	6	1	1	+8	19
4	Napoli	8	5	2	1	+10	17
5	Juventus	8	4	2	2	+4	14
6	Empoli	7	4	1	2	+3	13
7	Fiorentina	9	4	0	5	-2	12
8	Sassuolo	8	3	2	3	+1	11
9	Sampdoria	8	3	1	4	-1	10
10	Roma	8	3	0	5	+2	9
11	Lazio	8	2	2	4	-8	8
12	Bologna	7	2	2	3	-8	8
13	Venezia	9	2	2	5	-11	8
14	Verona	8	1	4	3	-3	7
15	Genoa	9	1	4	4	-7	7
16	Udinese	8	1	3	4	-5	6
17	Torino	8	1	2	5	-4	5
18	Salernitana	8	1	1	6	-11	4
19	Spezia	8	1	1	6	-17	4
20	Cagliari	7	0	3	4	-10	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.