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Bundesliga

Referee: H Osmers

Mainz

S S U S S

2–1

Full-time

Bayern Munich

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,3

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,7

This season — Bundesliga · 29/30 matches

Win Ø 51%

28%

73%

Points per game

1,1

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

48%

77%

Both score Ø 64%

55%

73%

Average goals

2,7

4,1

Scored

1,1

2,8

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+1,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

28% Possession 72%

8 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 13. · Bayern Munich 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	30	22	5	3	+47	71
2	RB Leipzig	30	18	7	5	+28	61
3	Wolfsburg	30	16	9	5	+24	57
4	Ein Frankfurt	30	15	11	4	+17	56
5	Dortmund	30	16	4	10	+22	52
6	Leverkusen	30	13	8	9	+14	47
7	M'gladbach	30	11	10	9	+8	43
8	Union Berlin	30	10	13	7	+7	43
9	Freiburg	29	11	7	11	+2	40
10	Stuttgart	30	10	9	11	+3	39
11	Hoffenheim	30	9	8	13	-5	35
12	Augsburg	31	9	6	16	-16	33
13	Mainz	29	8	7	14	-17	31
14	Werder Bremen	30	7	9	14	-15	30
15	Bielefeld	30	8	6	16	-23	30
16	FC Koln	31	7	8	16	-24	29
17	Hertha	28	6	8	14	-14	26
18	Schalke 04	30	2	7	21	-58	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	11	4	0	+34	37
2	Ein Frankfurt	15	9	6	0	+15	33
3	RB Leipzig	15	10	3	2	+14	33
4	Wolfsburg	14	9	4	1	+16	31
5	Dortmund	15	9	2	4	+17	29
6	Union Berlin	15	6	8	1	+11	26
7	Freiburg	15	7	4	4	+10	25
8	Leverkusen	15	7	4	4	+10	25
9	M'gladbach	15	7	4	4	+9	25
10	Hoffenheim	15	6	3	6	+5	21
11	Augsburg	16	5	4	7	-6	19
12	Bielefeld	16	6	1	9	-10	19
13	Stuttgart	15	4	6	5	+2	18
14	Hertha	14	4	3	7	-8	15
15	Werder Bremen	15	3	4	8	-10	13
16	Mainz	14	3	3	8	-9	12
17	FC Koln	15	2	5	8	-9	11
18	Schalke 04	15	2	3	10	-20	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	11	1	3	+13	34
2	RB Leipzig	15	8	4	3	+14	28
3	Wolfsburg	16	7	5	4	+8	26
4	Dortmund	15	7	2	6	+5	23
5	Ein Frankfurt	15	6	5	4	+2	23
6	Leverkusen	15	6	4	5	+4	22
7	Stuttgart	15	6	3	6	+1	21
8	Mainz	15	5	4	6	-8	19
9	M'gladbach	15	4	6	5	-1	18
10	FC Koln	16	5	3	8	-15	18
11	Union Berlin	15	4	5	6	-4	17
12	Werder Bremen	15	4	5	6	-5	17
13	Freiburg	14	4	3	7	-8	15
14	Hoffenheim	15	3	5	7	-10	14
15	Augsburg	15	4	2	9	-10	14
16	Hertha	14	2	5	7	-6	11
17	Bielefeld	14	2	5	7	-13	11
18	Schalke 04	15	0	4	11	-38	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.