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Bundesliga

Referee: M Schmidt

Bayern Munich

S U U S S

5–2

Full-time

Mainz

U T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,3

1,8

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

This season — Bundesliga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 39%

69%

Points per game

2,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 74%

85%

62%

Both score Ø 74%

85%

62%

Average goals

4,5

2,9

Scored

3,0

0,9

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

73% Possession 27%

19 Shots 12

12 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 7

10 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 2. · Mainz 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	14	9	4	1	+16	31
2	Bayern Munich	13	9	3	1	+20	30
3	Leverkusen	14	8	4	2	+15	28
4	Dortmund	14	8	1	5	+10	25
5	Union Berlin	14	6	6	2	+11	24
6	Wolfsburg	14	6	6	2	+5	24
7	M'gladbach	14	5	6	3	+3	21
8	Ein Frankfurt	14	4	8	2	+0	20
9	Freiburg	14	5	5	4	-1	20
10	Augsburg	14	5	4	5	-3	19
11	Stuttgart	14	4	6	4	+5	18
12	Hertha	14	4	4	6	-1	16
13	Hoffenheim	14	4	3	7	-4	15
14	Werder Bremen	14	3	5	6	-7	14
15	FC Koln	14	2	5	7	-9	11
16	Bielefeld	14	3	1	10	-15	10
17	Mainz	13	1	3	9	-14	6
18	Schalke 04	14	0	4	10	-31	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	7	6	1	0	+13	19
2	Wolfsburg	7	5	2	0	+6	17
3	Bayern Munich	6	4	2	0	+15	14
4	Union Berlin	7	3	3	1	+8	12
5	Dortmund	7	4	0	3	+6	12
6	Leverkusen	6	3	2	1	+5	11
7	Ein Frankfurt	7	2	5	0	+2	11
8	M'gladbach	7	2	4	1	+3	10
9	Freiburg	7	2	3	2	+1	9
10	Hertha	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Augsburg	7	2	2	3	-3	8
12	Hoffenheim	7	2	1	4	-1	7
13	Bielefeld	7	2	0	5	-6	6
14	Werder Bremen	7	1	2	4	-6	5
15	Stuttgart	7	0	4	3	-4	4
16	Mainz	7	0	2	5	-7	2
17	FC Koln	8	0	2	6	-10	2
18	Schalke 04	7	0	2	5	-10	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leverkusen	8	5	2	1	+10	17
2	Bayern Munich	7	5	1	1	+5	16
3	Stuttgart	7	4	2	1	+9	14
4	Dortmund	7	4	1	2	+4	13
5	Union Berlin	7	3	3	1	+3	12
6	RB Leipzig	7	3	3	1	+3	12
7	M'gladbach	7	3	2	2	+0	11
8	Augsburg	7	3	2	2	+0	11
9	Freiburg	7	3	2	2	-2	11
10	FC Koln	6	2	3	1	+1	9
11	Werder Bremen	7	2	3	2	-1	9
12	Ein Frankfurt	7	2	3	2	-2	9
13	Hertha	7	2	2	3	+1	8
14	Hoffenheim	7	2	2	3	-3	8
15	Wolfsburg	7	1	4	2	-1	7
16	Mainz	6	1	1	4	-7	4
17	Bielefeld	7	1	1	5	-9	4
18	Schalke 04	7	0	2	5	-21	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.