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Bundesliga

Referee: Guido Winkmann

Mainz

U T T U U

2–0

Full-time

Freiburg

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,7

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,3

2,2

Scored

0,3

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,5

This season — Bundesliga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 21%

21%

Points per game

0,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

41%

48%

Both score Ø 50%

52%

48%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,6

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,8

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

14 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 16. · Freiburg 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	30	24	3	3	+59	75
2	Schalke 04	30	16	7	7	+14	55
3	Leverkusen	30	14	9	7	+18	51
4	Dortmund	30	14	9	7	+16	51
5	RB Leipzig	30	13	8	9	+3	47
6	Hoffenheim	30	12	10	8	+13	46
7	Ein Frankfurt	30	13	7	10	+4	46
8	M'gladbach	30	11	7	12	-9	40
9	Hertha	30	9	12	9	+0	39
10	Stuttgart	30	11	6	13	-8	39
11	Augsburg	30	9	10	11	-2	37
12	Werder Bremen	30	9	10	11	-2	37
13	Hannover	30	9	9	12	-6	36
14	Wolfsburg	30	5	15	10	-7	30
15	Freiburg	29	6	12	11	-22	30
16	Mainz	29	6	9	14	-17	27
17	Hamburg	30	5	7	18	-25	22
18	FC Koln	30	5	6	19	-29	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	13	2	0	+41	41
2	Hoffenheim	15	9	4	2	+18	31
3	Schalke 04	15	9	4	2	+11	31
4	Dortmund	15	8	4	3	+16	28
5	RB Leipzig	15	8	4	3	+8	28
6	Stuttgart	15	8	4	3	+5	28
7	Leverkusen	15	7	5	3	+10	26
8	Ein Frankfurt	15	7	4	4	+7	25
9	M'gladbach	15	7	4	4	+3	25
10	Hannover	15	7	3	5	+4	24
11	Werder Bremen	15	6	5	4	+3	23
12	Hertha	15	5	6	4	+0	21
13	Freiburg	15	5	6	4	-3	21
14	Augsburg	15	5	4	6	-1	19
15	Mainz	14	5	3	6	-3	18
16	Hamburg	15	4	4	7	-4	16
17	Wolfsburg	15	2	8	5	-3	14
18	FC Koln	15	3	4	8	-8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	11	1	3	+18	34
2	Leverkusen	15	7	4	4	+8	25
3	Schalke 04	15	7	3	5	+3	24
4	Dortmund	15	6	5	4	+0	23
5	Ein Frankfurt	15	6	3	6	-3	21
6	RB Leipzig	15	5	4	6	-5	19
7	Hertha	15	4	6	5	+0	18
8	Augsburg	15	4	6	5	-1	18
9	Wolfsburg	15	3	7	5	-4	16
10	Hoffenheim	15	3	6	6	-5	15
11	M'gladbach	15	4	3	8	-12	15
12	Werder Bremen	15	3	5	7	-5	14
13	Hannover	15	2	6	7	-10	12
14	Stuttgart	15	3	2	10	-13	11
15	Mainz	15	1	6	8	-14	9
16	Freiburg	14	1	6	7	-19	9
17	FC Koln	15	2	2	11	-21	8
18	Hamburg	15	1	3	11	-21	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.