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Super League
Referee: L Cibelli
Basel
S U S T U
2–3
Full-time
Luzern
S U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Basel Luzern
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,0
3,2
Scored
1,0
1,5
Conceded
1,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,2
This season — Super League · 17/17 matches
Win Ø 29%
29%
29%
Points per game
1,3
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 44%
35%
53%
Both score Ø 56%
53%
59%
Average goals
2,4
3,1
Scored
1,3
1,5
Conceded
1,1
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%
16 Shots 14
6 Shots on target 5
6 Blocked shots 6
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
5 Corners 5
3 Offside 2
7 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Basel 5. · Luzern 6. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Young Boys 17 11 5 1 +27 38
2 Lugano 18 8 3 7 +1 27
3 St. Gallen 17 7 4 6 +9 25
4 Servette 16 6 7 3 +1 25
5 Basel 17 5 7 5 +4 22
6 Luzern 17 5 6 6 +0 21
7 Grasshoppers 18 5 6 7 -3 21
8 Sion 17 5 5 7 -7 20
9 Winterthur 16 4 4 8 -18 16
10 Zurich 17 2 7 8 -14 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

9. Nov -22 Luzern – Basel 0–2 24. Apr -22 Basel – Luzern 3–0 30. Jan -22 Luzern – Basel 0–3 28. Nov -21 Luzern – Basel 1–3 3. Oct -21 Basel – Luzern 1–1

Match report

Basel Luzern
1–0 Z. Amdouni ⚽
A. Pelmard
17′
42′
🟨 Mamady Diambou
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 Asumah Abubakar
↦ M. Dräger
60′
⚽ P. Schürpf 1–1
I. Beka
Hugo Novoa 🔁
↦ L. Millar
61′
A. Zeqiri 🔁
↦ B. Fink
61′
65′
🟨 Pius Dorn
71′
🟨 Sofyan Chader
74′
🔁 L. Emini
↦ M. Diambou
74′
🔁 T. Klidjé
↦ S. Chader
74′
⚽ A. Jashari 1–2
M. Meyer
2–2 A. Zeqiri ⚽
K. Nuhu
78′
A. Akalé 🔁
↦ A. Kade
81′
Andy Pelmard 🟨
83′
83′
🟨 Denis Simani
84′
🔁 B. Kimpioka
↦ P. Schürpf
89′
⚽ B. Kimpioka 2–3
M. Meyer
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Basel

4-4-2
1 M. Hitz G
22 Sergio López D
15 K. Nuhu D
20 F. Frei D
28 H. Vogel D
7 L. Millar M
8 A. Diouf M
21 A. Pelmard M
30 A. Kade M
9 Z. Amdouni F
14 B. Fink F
Bench (9)
90 Hugo Novoa
17 A. Zeqiri
35 A. Akalé
29 A. Onyegbule
34 T. Xhaka
13 M. Salvi
18 E. Essiam
32 J. Adjetey
5 M. Lang

Coach: A. Frei

Luzern

4-1-4-1
1 M. Müller G
20 P. Dorn D
5 D. Simani D
30 I. Beka D
13 M. Frýdek D
6 A. Jashari M
2 M. Dräger M
15 M. Diambou M
7 M. Meyer M
11 P. Schürpf M
69 S. Chader F
Bench (9)
21 Asumah Abubakar
31 L. Emini
17 T. Klidjé
77 B. Kimpioka
71 L. Jaquez
90 V. Vasić
33 L. Meyer
14 L. Breedijk
10 S. Campo

Coach: M. Frick

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
–
🔒
U
–
🔒
B ✓
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

L Cibelli · 109 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,33 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.