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Ligue 1
Referee: C Turpin
Troyes
U S T T T
1–1
Full-time
Lens
S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Troyes Lens
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,5
Scored
0,8
1,8
Conceded
2,2
0,7
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+1,2
This season — Ligue 1 · 19/19 matches
Win Ø 45%
21%
68%
Points per game
0,9
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
68%
47%
Both score Ø 63%
79%
47%
Average goals
3,7
2,4
Scored
1,6
1,7
Conceded
2,1
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,25 xG 2,94
27% Possession 73%
6 Shots 21
1 Shots on target 5
1 Blocked shots 5
3 Goalkeeper saves 0
3 Corners 11
0 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 7
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Troyes 14. · Lens 2.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 19 15 2 2 +34 47
2 Lens 19 13 5 1 +19 44
3 Marseille 19 13 3 3 +23 42
4 Monaco 19 11 4 4 +16 37
5 Rennes 20 11 4 5 +15 +0.6 37
6 Lorient 20 10 5 5 +3 -0.6 35
7 Lille 19 10 4 5 +10 34
8 Clermont 19 8 4 7 -3 28
9 Lyon 19 7 4 8 +5 25
10 Nice 19 6 7 6 +2 25
11 Reims 19 5 10 4 -2 25
12 Toulouse 19 6 5 8 -5 23
13 Nantes 19 4 9 6 -3 21
14 Troyes 19 4 6 9 -10 18
15 Montpellier 19 5 2 12 -12 17
16 Strasbourg 19 2 9 8 -10 15
17 Brest 19 3 6 10 -15 15
18 Ajaccio 19 4 3 12 -18 15
19 Auxerre 19 3 4 12 -25 13
20 Angers 19 2 2 15 -24 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Troyes Lens
9′
🟨 Kevin Danso
Mama Baldé 🟨
24′
Half-time 1–0
1–0 Y. Larouci
X. Chavalerin
50′
62′
🔁 David Costa
↦ A. Claude-Maurice
62′
🔁 W. Saïd
↦ L. Openda
W. Odobert 🔁
↦ A. Bruus
71′
72′
🔁 A. Thomasson
↦ D. Machado
80′
🔁 R. Labeau Lascary
↦ F. Sotoca
80′
🔁 I. Boura
↦ M. Haïdara
M. Moreno 🔁
↦ Mama Baldé
82′
Xavier Chavalerin 🟨
86′
88′
A. Thomasson 1–1
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Troyes

3-4-2-1
30 G. Gallon G
2 J. Porozo D
17 Y. Salmier D
4 E. Palmer-Brown D
18 T. Baldé M
6 R. Kouamé M
24 X. Chavalerin M
39 Y. Larouci M
19 A. Bruus F
11 Rony Lopes F
7 Mama Baldé F
Bench (7)
29 W. Odobert
21 M. Moreno
32 M. Hamdi
8 L. Agoumé
1 M. Lis
22 T. Zoukrou
28 D. Mazou-Sacko

Coach: P. Kisnorbo

Lens

3-4-3
30 B. Samba G
24 J. Gradit D
4 K. Danso D
21 M. Haïdara D
29 P. Frankowski M
26 S. Abdul Samed M
8 S. Fofana M
3 D. Machado M
7 F. Sotoca F
11 L. Openda F
18 A. Claude-Maurice F
Bench (9)
10 David Costa
22 W. Saïd
28 A. Thomasson
36 R. Labeau Lascary
23 I. Boura
6 J. Onana
14 F. Medina
16 J. Leca
25 J. Le Cardinal

Coach: F. Haise

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
5,03
U ✓
3,94
B
1,68
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,88
U2,5 ✓
1,94
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

C Turpin · 184 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.