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Bundesliga

Referee: C Dingert

Freiburg

S T S T U

3–1

Full-time

Augsburg

T U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Augsburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

This season — Bundesliga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 41%

53%

29%

Points per game

1,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

53%

59%

Both score Ø 50%

41%

59%

Average goals

2,9

3,1

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,78 xG 1,73

46% Possession 54%

15 Shots 16

9 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

3 Corners 7

1 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 6. · Augsburg 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	17	10	6	1	+36	+0.6	36
2	RB Leipzig	18	10	5	3	+15	+1.4	35
3	Union Berlin	17	10	3	4	+7	+2.4	33
4	Ein Frankfurt	17	9	4	4	+11	-2.5	31
5	Dortmund	17	10	1	6	+6	+1.6	31
6	Freiburg	17	9	4	4	+2	-0.2	31
7	Wolfsburg	17	8	5	4	+15	+4.9	29
8	Leverkusen	17	7	3	7	+2	+1.8	24
9	M'gladbach	17	6	4	7	+2	-1.6	22
10	FC Koln	17	5	6	6	-2	+2.3	21
11	Werder Bremen	17	6	3	8	-9	-3.4	21
12	Mainz	17	5	5	7	-6	-0.8	20
13	Hoffenheim	17	5	4	8	-2	-0.7	19
14	Augsburg	17	5	3	9	-8	-0.7	18
15	Stuttgart	18	3	7	8	-10	-0.1	16
16	Bochum	17	5	1	11	-22	-0.2	16
17	Hertha	17	3	5	9	-10	-3.5	14
18	Schalke 04	17	2	3	12	-27	-1.3	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	9	7	2	0	+15	-0.6	23
2	Union Berlin	8	6	2	0	+10	+1.9	20
3	Dortmund	8	6	1	1	+11	+1.2	19
4	Bayern Munich	8	5	3	0	+20	+0.6	18
5	M'gladbach	9	6	0	3	+9	-1.0	18
6	Freiburg	8	5	2	1	+7	+1.8	17
7	Ein Frankfurt	9	5	1	3	+8	-0.7	16
8	Wolfsburg	8	4	3	1	+11	+2.0	15
9	Leverkusen	9	4	2	3	+8	+0.8	14
10	FC Koln	8	4	2	2	+8	+2.9	14
11	Bochum	8	4	1	3	-3	+0.6	13
12	Stuttgart	9	3	3	3	+1	+0.4	12
13	Hoffenheim	9	3	2	4	-1	+1.2	11
14	Werder Bremen	9	3	1	5	+0	-0.5	10
15	Hertha	9	2	4	3	-4	-3.0	10
16	Augsburg	9	2	2	5	-7	+0.5	8
17	Mainz	8	1	4	3	-2	-0.4	7
18	Schalke 04	9	2	1	6	-15	-2.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	5	3	1	+16	-0.1	18
2	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	3	1	+3	-1.8	15
3	Wolfsburg	9	4	2	3	+4	+3.0	14
4	Freiburg	9	4	2	3	-5	-2.0	14
5	Union Berlin	9	4	1	4	-3	+0.5	13
6	Mainz	9	4	1	4	-4	-0.4	13
7	RB Leipzig	9	3	3	3	+0	+2.0	12
8	Dortmund	9	4	0	5	-5	+0.4	12
9	Werder Bremen	8	3	2	3	-9	-2.9	11
10	Augsburg	8	3	1	4	-1	-1.2	10
11	Leverkusen	8	3	1	4	-6	+1.0	10
12	Hoffenheim	8	2	2	4	-1	-1.9	8
13	FC Koln	9	1	4	4	-10	-0.6	7
14	Hertha	8	1	1	6	-6	-0.6	4
15	M'gladbach	8	0	4	4	-7	-0.5	4
16	Stuttgart	9	0	4	5	-11	-0.5	4
17	Bochum	9	1	0	8	-19	-0.8	3
18	Schalke 04	8	0	2	6	-12	+0.7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.