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Bundesliga
Referee: O Drachta
Sturm Graz
S T S T T
2–1
Full-time
Salzburg
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sturm Graz Salzburg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
33%
100%
Points per game
1,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,2
4,0
Scored
1,2
3,2
Conceded
2,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+2,3
This season — Bundesliga · 18/18 matches
Win Ø 64%
50%
78%
Points per game
1,7
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
56%
78%
Both score Ø 56%
44%
67%
Average goals
2,6
4,3
Scored
1,6
3,2
Conceded
0,9
1,1
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+2,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

35% Possession 65%
10 Shots 18
4 Shots on target 7
1 Blocked shots 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 11
4 Offside 1
15 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sturm Graz 4. · Salzburg 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Salzburg 18 14 1 3 +38 43
2 SK Rapid 19 12 4 3 +14 40
3 LASK 19 11 3 5 +18 36
4 Sturm Graz 18 9 4 5 +12 31
5 Wolfsberger AC 19 8 3 8 -3 27
6 Tirol 19 7 4 8 +1 25
7 Hartberg 19 6 7 6 -10 25
8 Austria Vienna 19 6 6 7 +2 24
9 St. Polten 19 5 5 9 -6 20
10 Ried 19 4 4 11 -17 16
11 Altach 19 4 3 12 -24 15
12 Admira 19 3 4 12 -25 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sturm Graz Salzburg
1–0 L. Jäger
S. Hierländer
9′
14′
🟨 Albert Vallci
2–0 I. Ljubic
A. Dante
22′
37′
🔁 P. Daka
↦ K. Adeyemi
Kelvin Yeboah 🟨
41′
Half-time 2–0
46′
🔁 E. Mwepu
↦ L. Sučić
46′
🔁 A. Ulmer
↦ A. Vallci
B. Balaj 🔁
↦ J. Jantscher
55′
D. Shabanhaxhaj 🔁
↦ K. Yeboah
69′
J. Stankovič 🔁
↦ A. Kuen
69′
69′
🔁 M. Kjærgaard
↦ B. Aaronson
69′
🔁 Z. Junuzović
↦ A. Bernède
78′
P. Daka 2–1
J. Gazibegović 🔁
↦ I. Ljubic
86′
90′
🟨 Nicolas Seiwald
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Sturm Graz

4-3-1-2
32 T. Schützenauer G
5 G. Wüthrich D
24 S. Ingolitsch D
6 D. Nemeth D
44 A. Dante D
13 J. Jantscher F
25 S. Hierländer M
17 L. Jäger M
19 A. Kuen M
30 I. Ljubic M
23 K. Yeboah F
Bench (7)
9 B. Balaj
33 D. Shabanhaxhaj
4 J. Stankovič
11 J. Gazibegović
31 L. Marić
35 N. Geyrhofer
20 K. Friesenbichler

Coach: C. Ilzer

Salzburg

4-2-2-2
1 C. Stanković G
15 André Ramalho D
5 A. Vallci D
43 R. Kristensen D
22 O. Solet D
28 A. Bernède M
11 B. Aaronson M
13 N. Seiwald M
21 L. Sučić M
8 M. Berisha F
27 K. Adeyemi F
Bench (7)
20 P. Daka
45 E. Mwepu
17 A. Ulmer
14 M. Kjærgaard
16 Z. Junuzović
23 N. Mantl
70 A. Dedić

Coach: J. Marsch

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
U
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

O Drachta · 18 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,8 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
29,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.