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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Leicester

T S U S S

1–3

Full-time

Arsenal

U T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leicester Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 50%

60%

40%

Points per game

2,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

56%

52%

Both score Ø 44%

48%

40%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

44% Possession 56%

8 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 7

0 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 3

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leicester 3. · Arsenal 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	26	19	5	2	+36	62
2	Man United	25	14	7	4	+21	49
3	Leicester	25	15	4	6	+17	49
4	West Ham	26	13	6	7	+9	45
5	Chelsea	25	12	7	6	+16	43
6	Liverpool	25	11	7	7	+11	40
7	Everton	24	12	4	8	+4	40
8	Aston Villa	24	12	3	9	+12	39
9	Tottenham	24	10	6	8	+10	36
10	Leeds	26	11	2	13	-1	35
11	Arsenal	25	10	4	11	+5	34
12	Wolves	26	9	7	10	-6	34
13	Crystal Palace	25	9	5	11	-14	32
14	Southampton	25	8	6	11	-12	30
15	Burnley	25	7	7	11	-12	28
16	Brighton	26	5	11	10	-7	26
17	Newcastle	26	7	5	14	-17	26
18	Fulham	25	4	10	11	-11	22
19	West Brom	26	3	8	15	-35	17
20	Sheffield United	25	3	2	20	-26	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	10	2	1	+19	32
2	West Ham	13	7	3	3	+6	24
3	Liverpool	13	7	2	4	+6	23
4	Chelsea	12	6	4	2	+12	22
5	Man United	13	6	3	4	+9	21
6	Leicester	12	6	1	5	+3	19
7	Wolves	13	5	4	4	+1	19
8	Tottenham	12	5	3	4	+4	18
9	Arsenal	13	5	3	5	+2	18
10	Leeds	13	5	2	6	+2	17
11	Southampton	13	5	2	6	+1	17
12	Aston Villa	11	5	1	5	+4	16
13	Burnley	13	4	4	5	-4	16
14	Newcastle	13	4	3	6	-6	15
15	Crystal Palace	12	4	3	5	-7	15
16	Everton	12	4	2	6	-3	14
17	Brighton	13	1	7	5	-5	10
18	Fulham	13	2	4	7	-9	10
19	West Brom	13	2	4	7	-23	10
20	Sheffield United	12	2	1	9	-9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	9	3	1	+17	30
2	Leicester	13	9	3	1	+14	30
3	Man United	12	8	4	0	+12	28
4	Everton	12	8	2	2	+7	26
5	Aston Villa	13	7	2	4	+8	23
6	Chelsea	13	6	3	4	+4	21
7	West Ham	13	6	3	4	+3	21
8	Tottenham	12	5	3	4	+6	18
9	Leeds	13	6	0	7	-3	18
10	Liverpool	12	4	5	3	+5	17
11	Crystal Palace	13	5	2	6	-7	17
12	Arsenal	12	5	1	6	+3	16
13	Brighton	13	4	4	5	-2	16
14	Wolves	13	4	3	6	-7	15
15	Southampton	12	3	4	5	-13	13
16	Fulham	12	2	6	4	-2	12
17	Burnley	12	3	3	6	-8	12
18	Newcastle	13	3	2	8	-11	11
19	West Brom	13	1	4	8	-12	7
20	Sheffield United	13	1	1	11	-17	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.