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Serie A

Referee: M Fabbri

Crotone

T T T T T

0–2

Full-time

Cagliari

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Crotone Cagliari

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,5

1,3

Scored

1,0

0,2

Conceded

2,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-1,0

This season — Serie A · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 13%

13%

Points per game

0,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

74%

39%

Both score Ø 59%

61%

57%

Average goals

3,4

2,8

Scored

1,0

Conceded

2,4

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,4

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%

11 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Crotone 20. · Cagliari 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	23	16	5	2	+33	53
2	Milan	23	15	4	4	+17	49
3	Juventus	23	13	7	3	+25	46
4	Atalanta	24	13	7	4	+24	46
5	Roma	23	13	5	5	+12	44
6	Lazio	24	13	4	7	+6	43
7	Napoli	22	13	1	8	+22	40
8	Verona	24	9	8	7	+4	35
9	Sassuolo	23	9	8	6	+3	35
10	Sampdoria	24	9	3	12	-3	30
11	Bologna	24	7	7	10	-5	28
12	Genoa	23	6	8	9	-7	26
13	Udinese	23	6	7	10	-8	25
14	Fiorentina	23	6	7	10	-10	25
15	Spezia	24	6	7	11	-11	25
16	Benevento	23	6	7	10	-17	25
17	Torino	23	3	11	9	-8	20
18	Cagliari	23	3	6	14	-17	15
19	Parma	24	2	9	13	-28	15
20	Crotone	23	3	3	17	-32	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	12	9	3	0	+18	30
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+18	28
3	Juventus	11	8	2	1	+15	26
4	Lazio	12	7	2	3	+4	23
5	Napoli	11	7	1	3	+18	22
6	Atalanta	12	6	3	3	+12	21
7	Milan	12	6	3	3	+6	21
8	Verona	12	6	3	3	+6	21
9	Fiorentina	12	5	4	3	+3	19
10	Bologna	12	5	3	4	+1	18
11	Sampdoria	12	5	1	6	+0	16
12	Genoa	12	4	3	5	-1	15
13	Sassuolo	11	3	5	3	+0	14
14	Udinese	11	3	3	5	-3	12
15	Benevento	12	2	5	5	-9	11
16	Spezia	12	2	4	6	-7	10
17	Crotone	11	3	1	7	-8	10
18	Cagliari	12	2	3	7	-8	9
19	Parma	12	1	5	6	-15	8
20	Torino	11	0	7	4	-5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	11	9	1	1	+11	28
2	Inter	12	7	4	1	+15	25
3	Atalanta	12	7	4	1	+12	25
4	Sassuolo	12	6	3	3	+3	21
5	Juventus	12	5	5	2	+10	20
6	Lazio	12	6	2	4	+2	20
7	Napoli	11	6	0	5	+4	18
8	Spezia	12	4	3	5	-4	15
9	Verona	12	3	5	4	-2	14
10	Sampdoria	12	4	2	6	-3	14
11	Roma	11	4	2	5	-6	14
12	Benevento	11	4	2	5	-8	14
13	Torino	12	3	4	5	-3	13
14	Udinese	12	3	4	5	-5	13
15	Genoa	11	2	5	4	-6	11
16	Bologna	12	2	4	6	-6	10
17	Parma	12	1	4	7	-13	7
18	Cagliari	11	1	3	7	-9	6
19	Fiorentina	11	1	3	7	-13	6
20	Crotone	12	0	2	10	-24	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.