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Taça de Portugal

Referee: João Alexandre Silva

Rio Ave

U S T S U

2–1

Full-time

São João Ver

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave São João Ver

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Taça de Portugal · 3/5 matches

Win Ø 74%

67%

80%

Points per game

2,3

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

100%

40%

Both score Ø 80%

100%

60%

Average goals

4,0

2,8

Scored

2,7

2,2

Conceded

1,3

0,6

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,6

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Rio Ave 13. · São João Ver 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	São João Ver	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Rebordosa	5	4	0	1	+5	12
3	Tirsense	4	4	0	0	+5	12
4	O Elvas	4	3	1	0	+3	10
5	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+11	9
6	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+8	9
7	Gil Vicente	3	3	0	0	+5	9
8	Amarante	4	3	0	1	+4	9
9	Sp Braga	3	3	0	0	+4	9
10	Cinfães	4	3	0	1	+3	9
11	Oliveira Hospital	4	3	0	1	+3	9
12	Lusitânia	4	3	0	1	+1	9
13	Rio Ave	3	2	1	0	+4	7
14	Alverca	3	2	1	0	+4	7
15	Brito	4	2	1	1	+1	7
16	Vila Real	4	2	1	1	+1	7
17	Casa Pia	3	2	0	1	+6	6
18	SC Covilha	3	2	0	1	+4	6
19	Anadia	3	2	0	1	+3	6
20	Moncarapachense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
21	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+3	6
22	Varzim	3	2	0	1	+3	6
23	União Santarém	3	2	0	1	+2	6
24	Moura	3	2	0	1	+2	6
25	CF Os Belenenses	3	2	0	1	+2	6
26	Farense	3	2	0	1	+1	6
27	Moreirense	3	2	0	1	+1	6
28	União de Leiria	3	2	0	1	+1	6
29	Chaves	3	2	0	1	+1	6
30	Santa Clara	3	2	0	1	+1	6
31	Lusitânia Lourosa	3	2	0	1	+0	6
32	Leixoes	3	2	0	1	+0	6
33	Maria da Fonte	3	2	0	1	-3	6
34	Lusitano Évora 1911	4	1	2	1	+0	5
35	Sanjoanense	3	1	1	1	+3	4
36	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
37	Caldas	3	1	1	1	+0	4
38	Arouca	2	1	0	1	+4	3
39	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
40	Penafiel	2	1	0	1	+2	3
41	Alcains	2	1	0	1	+2	3
42	Porto	2	1	0	1	+2	3
43	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+2	3
44	Alpendorada	2	1	0	1	+2	3
45	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+2	3
46	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
47	AVS	2	1	0	1	+1	3
48	Atlético CP	2	1	0	1	+1	3
49	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
50	Machico	2	1	0	1	+1	3
51	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
52	Famalicao	2	1	0	1	+1	3
53	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
54	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
55	Os Limianos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Torreense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	1º Dezembro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	Aliança de Gandra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
65	Vieira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
66	Mafra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
67	Lagoa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
68	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
69	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
70	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	-1	3
71	Atlético Arcos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
72	Sandinenses	2	1	0	1	-1	3
73	CF Benfica	2	1	0	1	-2	3
74	Paredes	2	1	0	1	-2	3
75	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
76	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
77	Pêro Pinheiro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
78	Amora	2	1	0	1	-4	3
79	Estrela	2	1	0	1	-5	3
80	Lajense	3	1	0	2	-5	3
81	AD Marco 09	2	0	2	0	+0	2
82	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
83	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
84	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
85	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
86	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
87	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	1
88	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
89	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
90	União de Coimbra	2	0	1	1	-2	1
91	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
111	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
112	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
113	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
114	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
115	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
116	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
117	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
118	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
119	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
126	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
127	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
128	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
129	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
130	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
131	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
132	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
133	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
134	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
135	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
136	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
137	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
138	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
139	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
140	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
141	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
142	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
143	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
144	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
145	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
146	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tirsense	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Oliveira Hospital	4	3	0	1	+3	9
3	Brito	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+7	6
5	SC Covilha	3	2	0	1	+4	6
6	Cinfães	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Rebordosa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
8	Moncarapachense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
9	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+4	6
10	Varzim	3	2	0	1	+3	6
11	Moura	2	2	0	0	+3	6
12	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
13	União Santarém	3	2	0	1	+2	6
14	O Elvas	2	2	0	0	+2	6
15	Lusitano Évora 1911	3	1	2	0	+1	5
16	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+3	4
17	Vila Real	3	1	1	1	+0	4
18	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+7	3
19	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+5	3
20	Alcains	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Machico	1	1	0	0	+3	3
22	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+3	3
23	Alpendorada	2	1	0	1	+2	3
24	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Vieira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	+1	3
28	Anadia	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	Atlético CP	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	CF Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	CF Os Belenenses	2	1	0	1	+1	3
33	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
34	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
37	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Aliança de Gandra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	1º Dezembro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Lajense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Caldas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Lagoa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
49	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-1	3
50	Leixoes	2	1	0	1	-1	3
51	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	-1	3
52	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
53	Maria da Fonte	2	1	0	1	-4	3
54	Amora	2	1	0	1	-4	3
55	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	União de Coimbra	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
60	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
61	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Penafiel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Famalicao	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Arronches e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Farense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Sandinenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
87	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
88	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
89	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
90	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
91	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
92	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Rio Ave	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	São João Ver	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Gil Vicente	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Farense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Lusitânia	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Rebordosa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Santa Clara	3	2	0	1	+1	6
10	Amarante	3	2	0	1	-1	6
11	Sanjoanense	2	1	1	0	+5	4
12	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
13	O Elvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+5	3
15	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+5	3
16	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
17	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Arronches e Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Os Limianos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Porto	2	1	0	1	+2	3
21	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
26	AVS	2	1	0	1	+1	3
27	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
28	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Torreense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	União de Leiria	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Mafra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Cinfães	2	1	0	1	-1	3
45	Chaves	2	1	0	1	-1	3
46	Atlético Arcos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
47	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
48	Estrela	2	1	0	1	-5	3
49	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Louletano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Aliança de Gandra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Brito	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Moura	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Vieira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Machico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
90	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
91	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
92	CF Benfica	1	0	0	1	-3	0
93	Paredes	1	0	0	1	-3	0
94	Pêro Pinheiro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
95	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
96	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
97	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
98	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
99	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
100	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
101	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
102	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
103	Lajense	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.