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League Cup

Referee: D Bond

Brentford

U U U T T

0–1

Full-time

Arsenal

U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

41% Possession 59%

18 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 3

5 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Ipswich	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Port Vale	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Exeter City	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Blackburn	2	2	0	0	+9	6
6	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+6	6
7	Burnley	2	2	0	0	+5	6
8	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+4	6
9	Norwich	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	Mansfield Town	3	1	2	0	+2	5
11	Reading	2	1	1	0	+4	4
12	Cardiff	2	1	1	0	+2	4
13	Portsmouth	2	1	1	0	+2	4
14	Newport County	2	1	1	0	+2	4
15	Lincoln	2	1	1	0	+2	4
16	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	4
17	Sutton Utd	3	1	1	1	+0	4
18	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+4	3
19	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+3	3
20	Man United	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+2	3
22	Gillingham	2	1	0	1	+1	3
23	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Wycombe	2	1	0	1	+1	3
26	Everton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
28	Peterborough	3	0	3	0	+0	3
29	AFC Wimbledon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
30	Luton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
31	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	+0	3
32	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
33	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	-1	3
34	Bolton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
35	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-3	3
36	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-7	3
37	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
38	Stevenage	2	0	2	0	+0	2
39	Crewe	2	0	2	0	+0	2
40	Wrexham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
41	Bradford	3	0	2	1	-2	2
42	Salford City	3	0	2	1	-4	2
43	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Cambridge United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Swindon Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Tranmere	2	0	1	1	-2	1
59	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-5	1
60	Walsall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Fleetwood Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Forest Green	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
84	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-4	0
85	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Port Vale	3	2	1	0	+2	7
2	Exeter City	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Ipswich	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Newport County	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Mansfield Town	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+5	3
8	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+3	3
9	Man United	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+2	3
11	Gillingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Luton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
18	Bolton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
19	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-7	3
20	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
21	Wrexham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
22	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Sutton Utd	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Portsmouth	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Peterborough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Stevenage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Salford City	2	0	1	1	-4	1
36	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
43	Forest Green	1	0	0	1	-2	0
44	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Bradford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Burnley	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Norwich	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Lincoln	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+8	3
7	Reading	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Everton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Sutton Utd	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-3	3
18	Peterborough	2	0	2	0	+0	2
19	Bradford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
20	Crewe	2	0	2	0	+0	2
21	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Cambridge United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Swindon Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Stevenage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Walsall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Fleetwood Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
54	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-4	0
55	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.