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Premier League

Referee: J Brooks

Newcastle

S U U S T

1–2

Full-time

Liverpool

S U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

2,0

2,2

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

2,5

2,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,99 xG 0,88

60% Possession 40%

23 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

5 Corners 9

0 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Newcastle 13. · Liverpool 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+5	+5.5	9
2	West Ham	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.8	7
3	Tottenham	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.1	7
4	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.3	7
5	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+4	+0.9	6
6	Aston Villa	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.7	6
7	Man United	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.8	6
8	Brentford	3	1	2	0	+3	+4.6	5
9	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.7	4
10	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.6	4
11	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.2	4
12	Fulham	3	1	1	1	-2	-7.3	4
13	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+3	+0.9	3
14	Nott'm Forest	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.4	3
15	Wolves	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.2	3
16	Bournemouth	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.9	1
17	Sheffield United	3	0	0	3	-3	-5.2	0
18	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.7	0
19	Luton	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.4	0
20	Everton	3	0	0	3	-6	-0.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man United	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.5	6
2	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.9	4
3	Arsenal	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.3	4
4	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.6	3
5	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.4	3
6	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.8	3
7	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.7	3
8	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.3	3
9	Brighton	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.8	3
10	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
11	Man City	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
12	Brentford	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.1	2
13	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.1	1
14	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
15	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-2	-4.3	0
16	Everton	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.5	0
17	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.1	0
18	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.5	0
19	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+4.7	6
2	West Ham	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.4	4
3	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.4	4
4	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+1	-3.9	4
5	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.2	4
6	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.1	3
7	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.5	3
8	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
9	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
10	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.3	3
11	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
12	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
13	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
14	Nott'm Forest	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.3	0
15	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.8	0
16	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.7	0
17	Man United	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.3	0
18	Everton	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.4	0
19	Luton	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.