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Super League
Referee: M Turkes
Thun
U S S T T
3–1
Full-time
Basel
S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Thun Basel
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,3
3,2
Scored
2,0
1,8
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Super League · 32/32 matches
Win Ø 60%
72%
47%
Points per game
2,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 69%
78%
59%
Both score Ø 68%
72%
63%
Average goals
3,4
2,9
Scored
2,3
1,6
Conceded
1,1
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,1
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,72 xG 1,44
41% Possession 59%
17 Shots 17
8 Shots on target 5
7 Blocked shots 6
4 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 8
3 Offside 3
19 Free kicks against 8
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Thun 1. · Basel 4.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Thun 32 23 2 7 +36 +7.1 71
2 St. Gallen 33 17 9 7 +24 +11.4 60
3 Lugano 33 16 9 8 +12 -2.1 57
4 Basel 32 15 8 9 +8 +10.7 53
5 Sion 33 13 13 7 +16 +15.0 52
6 Young Boys 33 13 9 11 +5 -2.2 48
7 Luzern 33 10 10 13 +3 +1.6 40
8 Servette 33 9 13 11 +0 +6.6 40
9 Lausanne 33 10 9 14 -10 +0.8 39
10 Zurich 33 10 4 19 -18 -8.3 34
11 Grasshoppers 33 6 9 18 -25 -18.2 27
12 Winterthur 33 4 7 22 -51 -22.3 19

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Thun Basel
Genís Montolio 🟨
14′
27′
🟨 Ibrahim Salah
1–0 C. Ibayi
E. Rastoder
28′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 J. Duranville
↦ I. Salah
2–0 M. Heule
K. Imeri
53′
56′
J. Duranville 2–1
A. Ajeti
58′
🟨 Leo Leroy
59′
🔁 K. Ruegg
↦ N. Vouilloz
M. Kait 🔁
↦ K. Imeri
63′
N. Rupp 🔁
↦ F. Meichtry
63′
3–1 E. Rastoder
M. Heule
64′
69′
🔁 K. Koindredi
↦ L. Leroy
69′
🔁 G. Koloto
↦ A. Ajeti
B. Labeau 🔁
↦ J. Roth
74′
V. Matoshi 🔁
↦ C. Ibayi
74′
80′
🟨 Xherdan Shaqiri
M. Burki 🔁
↦ M. Heule
90′
90′
🔁 M. Broschinski
↦ Metinho
Marco Burki 🟨
93′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Thun

4-2-2-2
24 N. Steffen G
47 F. Fehr D
4 G. Montolio D
19 J. Bamert D
27 M. Heule D
6 L. Bertone M
16 J. Roth M
77 F. Meichtry M
7 K. Imeri M
18 C. Ibayi F
74 E. Rastoder F
Bench (9)
25 T. Spycher
23 M. Burki
14 M. Kait
96 B. Labeau
9 F. Dursun
78 V. Matoshi
20 N. Rupp
37 L. Dahler
33 M. Gutbub

Coach: Mauro Lustrinelli

Basel

4-2-3-1
1 M. Hitz G
3 N. Vouilloz D
4 B. Omeragic D
24 F. Daniliuc D
31 D. Schmid D
22 L. Leroy M
5 Metinho M
21 I. Salah M
10 X. Shaqiri M
11 B. Traore M
23 A. Ajeti F
Bench (9)
13 M. Salvi
27 K. Ruegg
17 M. Broschinski
8 K. Koindredi
25 F. van Breemen
14 A. Bacanin
37 G. Koloto
29 M. Cisse
18 J. Duranville

Coach: Matthias Kohler

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
U
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Turkes · 39 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.