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Championship
Referee: G Ward
Portsmouth
T U U S S
1–0
Full-time
Leicester
T U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Portsmouth Leicester
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,2
Scored
1,2
1,0
Conceded
1,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 42/42 matches
Win Ø 28%
29%
26%
Points per game
1,1
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
43%
57%
Both score Ø 63%
52%
74%
Average goals
2,4
2,8
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
1,4
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,01 xG 0,91
47% Possession 53%
11 Shots 14
2 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 6
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
5 Corners 7
2 Offside 0
11 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Portsmouth 20. · Leicester 21.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Coventry 43 25 11 7 +42 +32.3 86
2 Ipswich 41 21 12 8 +29 +28.2 75
3 Southampton 40 20 11 9 +27 +19.8 71
4 Millwall 40 20 10 10 +9 +4.8 70
5 Middlesbrough 39 18 11 10 +13 +23.8 65
6 Hull 39 19 8 12 +7 -21.5 65
7 Wrexham 42 17 13 12 +3 -7.2 64
8 Derby 42 18 9 15 +8 +2.0 63
9 Norwich 42 17 7 18 +5 -4.0 58
10 Bristol City 42 16 10 16 +1 -6.1 58
11 QPR 42 16 10 16 -5 -0.0 58
12 Watford 42 14 15 13 +1 +3.5 57
13 Preston 42 14 15 13 -3 -15.8 57
14 Swansea 42 16 9 17 -4 -6.4 57
15 Birmingham 42 15 11 16 -1 +13.7 56
16 Stoke 42 15 10 17 +3 -10.2 55
17 Sheffield United 42 16 6 20 +0 +14.5 54
18 Charlton 42 12 13 17 -12 -15.0 49
19 Blackburn 44 12 13 19 -15 +1.2 49
20 Portsmouth 42 12 12 18 -14 -0.2 48
21 Leicester 42 11 14 17 -10 -12.2 47
22 West Brom 42 11 13 18 -14 +9.1 46
23 Oxford 42 10 14 18 -13 -6.5 44
24 Sheffield Weds 42 1 11 30 -57 -47.8 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Portsmouth Leicester
-5′
🟨 Hamza Choudhury
A. Segecic 🔁
↦ K. Anderson
8′
I. Bowat 🔁
↦ T. Devlin
17′
Half-time 1–0
1–0 I. Bowat
A. Segecic
63′
70′
🔁 J. James
↦ H. Choudhury
71′
🔁 D. Mukasa
↦ S. Mavididi
75′
🟨 Patson Daka
76′
🔁 J. Ayew
↦ B. De Cordova-Reid
E. Adams 🔁
↦ C. Chaplin
77′
J. Brown 🔁
77′
Marlon Pack 🟨
90′
90′
🟨 Jordan Ayew
91′
🔁 O. Aluko
↦ R. Pereira
Jacob Brown 🟨
92′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Portsmouth

4-2-3-1
1 N. Schmid G
24 T. Devlin D
5 R. Poole D
6 C. Shaughnessy D
2 J. Williams D
7 M. Pack M
21 A. Dozzell M
27 M. Alli M
36 C. Chaplin M
37 K. Anderson M
9 C. Bishop F
Bench (9)
26 J. Bursik
8 J. Swift
38 E. Adams
10 A. Segecic
29 H. Blair
23 J. Murphy
40 J. Brown
17 I. Bowat
55 M. Dia

Coach: John Mousinho

Leicester

4-2-3-1
31 A. Begovic G
21 R. Pereira D
24 J. Lascelles D
23 J. Vestergaard D
33 L. Thomas D
17 H. Choudhury M
8 H. Winks M
7 I. Fatawu M
14 B. De Cordova-Reid M
10 S. Mavididi M
20 P. Daka F
Bench (9)
1 J. Stolarczyk
9 J. Ayew
15 H. Souttar
18 J. Aribo
6 J. James
28 J. Monga
22 O. Skipp
29 D. Mukasa
56 O. Aluko

Coach: Gary Rowett

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,26
U
3,28
B
3,13
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,08
U2,5 ✓
1,70
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

G Ward · 178 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.