Primeira Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Casa Pia
Santa Clara
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Porto
|
29 | 24 | 4 | 1 | +45 | +34.5 | 76 |
| 2 |
Sp Lisbon
|
28 | 22 | 5 | 1 | +56 | +38.8 | 71 |
| 3 |
Benfica
|
29 | 20 | 9 | 0 | +43 | +34.6 | 69 |
| 4 |
Sp Braga
|
28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | +28 | +22.8 | 52 |
| 5 |
Famalicao
|
29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | +11 | +10.9 | 47 |
| 6 |
Gil Vicente
|
29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | +14 | +9.8 | 46 |
| 7 |
Estoril
|
29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | +1 | -9.1 | 37 |
| 8 |
Guimaraes
|
29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | -8 | -3.2 | 36 |
| 9 |
Moreirense
|
29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | -9 | -16.4 | 36 |
| 10 |
Alverca
|
30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | -16 | -1.7 | 35 |
| 11 |
Rio Ave
|
30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -17 | -16.2 | 34 |
| 12 |
Arouca
|
29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | -21 | -17.9 | 32 |
| 13 |
Nacional
|
30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | -9 | -12.1 | 28 |
| 14 |
Santa Clara
|
29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | -11 | -1.6 | 28 |
| 15 |
Estrela
|
29 | 6 | 10 | 13 | -15 | -10.4 | 28 |
| 16 |
Casa Pia
|
28 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -24 | -25.3 | 25 |
| 17 |
Tondela
|
28 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -25 | -10.2 | 21 |
| 18 |
AVS
|
30 | 1 | 10 | 19 | -43 | -27.5 | 13 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
P. Sequeira
G
J. Goulart
D
A. Geraldes
D
D. Sousa
D
G. Larrazabal
M
I. Mohamed
M
P. Rosas
M
Cassiano
F
Coach: Alvaro Pacheco
Lucas Soares
D
S. Lima
D
H. Silva
D
Guilherme Romao
D
J. Tavares
M
P. Ferreira
M
Gabriel Silva
F
G. Paciencia
F
Vinicius Lopes
F
Coach: Vasco Matos
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Alverca
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
Benfica
Estrela
Casa Pia
Estoril
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
Moreirense
A Nobre · 14 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.