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Championship

Referee: A Backhouse

Cardiff

S T T T U

2–1

Full-time

Stoke

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

0,5

0,7

Conceded

1,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 32%

36%

27%

Points per game

1,2

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

48%

39%

Both score Ø 42%

42%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

0,54 xG 1,95

40% Possession 60%

11 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 6

3 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 14. · Stoke 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	34	25	3	6	+41	+28.3	78
2	Ipswich	33	20	9	4	+21	+18.0	69
3	Leeds	32	20	6	6	+35	+28.2	66
4	Southampton	31	18	7	6	+21	+21.7	61
5	West Brom	32	16	8	8	+20	+9.6	56
6	Hull	34	16	7	11	+7	+6.4	55
7	Preston	34	15	7	12	-5	-11.9	52
8	Coventry	34	13	12	9	+11	+9.1	51
9	Norwich	31	15	6	10	+10	-1.9	51
10	Sunderland	33	14	5	14	+8	+11.2	47
11	Watford	33	11	11	11	+4	+1.3	44
12	Bristol City	33	12	8	13	+1	-0.0	44
13	Middlesbrough	32	13	5	14	+0	+12.6	44
14	Cardiff	33	12	5	16	-10	-17.2	41
15	Birmingham	32	10	8	14	-11	-4.1	38
16	Blackburn	33	11	5	17	-12	-5.6	38
17	Plymouth	33	9	10	14	-6	-17.5	37
18	Swansea	33	9	9	15	-13	-11.9	36
19	Stoke	33	9	8	16	-16	-4.8	35
20	Huddersfield	33	7	13	13	-16	-11.0	34
21	Millwall	33	8	9	16	-15	-10.5	33
22	QPR	33	8	8	17	-14	-9.8	32
23	Sheffield Weds	33	8	5	20	-26	-7.8	29
24	Rotherham	33	3	10	20	-35	-32.7	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	16	12	4	0	+25	+19.9	40
2	Leicester	17	13	1	3	+23	+15.4	40
3	Ipswich	16	11	4	1	+15	+15.6	37
4	West Brom	16	11	3	2	+16	+10.7	36
5	Norwich	16	11	2	3	+14	+6.8	35
6	Southampton	15	10	2	3	+19	+15.3	32
7	Sunderland	16	10	0	6	+9	+9.5	30
8	Preston	17	9	3	5	-2	-5.3	30
9	Coventry	17	7	8	2	+7	+6.4	29
10	Plymouth	17	8	4	5	+8	-5.9	28
11	Birmingham	16	7	6	3	+5	+1.2	27
12	Hull	17	7	5	5	+7	+7.3	26
13	Bristol City	17	7	3	7	+2	+0.9	24
14	Middlesbrough	16	6	3	7	-1	+9.1	21
15	Huddersfield	17	5	6	6	-2	-2.4	21
16	Cardiff	16	6	3	7	-2	-7.2	21
17	Watford	16	5	5	6	+5	+8.4	20
18	Blackburn	16	6	2	8	-4	+2.5	20
19	Sheffield Weds	16	5	4	7	-3	+0.8	19
20	Stoke	17	5	4	8	-9	+0.1	19
21	Swansea	17	4	5	8	-7	-1.8	17
22	Millwall	17	4	4	9	-13	-3.7	16
23	Rotherham	17	3	6	8	-6	-8.4	15
24	QPR	16	3	5	8	-7	-2.4	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	17	12	2	3	+18	+12.9	38
2	Ipswich	17	9	5	3	+6	+2.4	32
3	Southampton	16	8	5	3	+2	+6.4	29
4	Hull	17	9	2	6	+0	-0.8	29
5	Leeds	16	8	2	6	+10	+8.3	26
6	Watford	17	6	6	5	-1	-7.1	24
7	Middlesbrough	16	7	2	7	+1	+3.5	23
8	Coventry	17	6	4	7	+4	+2.7	22
9	Preston	17	6	4	7	-3	-6.6	22
10	West Brom	16	5	5	6	+4	-1.1	20
11	Bristol City	16	5	5	6	-1	-0.9	20
12	Cardiff	17	6	2	9	-8	-10.0	20
13	Swansea	16	5	4	7	-6	-10.0	19
14	QPR	17	5	3	9	-7	-7.4	18
15	Blackburn	17	5	3	9	-8	-8.1	18
16	Sunderland	17	4	5	8	-1	+1.7	17
17	Millwall	16	4	5	7	-2	-6.8	17
18	Norwich	15	4	4	7	-4	-8.7	16
19	Stoke	16	4	4	8	-7	-4.8	16
20	Huddersfield	16	2	7	7	-14	-8.6	13
21	Birmingham	16	3	2	11	-16	-5.3	11
22	Sheffield Weds	17	3	1	13	-23	-8.6	10
23	Plymouth	16	1	6	9	-14	-11.6	9
24	Rotherham	16	0	4	12	-29	-24.3	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.