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Championship

Referee: A Davies

Cardiff

T S T T S

1–1

Full-time

Stoke

S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,5

1,8

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

This season — Championship · 42/43 matches

Win Ø 31%

29%

33%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

31%

47%

Both score Ø 40%

38%

42%

Average goals

2,1

2,4

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

35% Possession 65%

7 Shots 6

4 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 4

1 Offside 4

3 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 20. · Stoke 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	42	26	14	2	+48	92
2	Sheffield United	42	25	7	10	+29	82
3	Middlesbrough	42	22	8	12	+31	74
4	Luton	40	20	12	8	+17	72
5	Millwall	43	18	11	14	+8	65
6	Blackburn	42	19	7	16	-2	64
7	West Brom	42	17	12	13	+9	63
8	Norwich	43	17	11	15	+8	62
9	Preston	43	17	11	15	-8	62
10	Sunderland	41	16	12	13	+9	60
11	Coventry	41	15	14	12	+8	59
12	Watford	43	15	14	14	+2	59
13	Swansea	43	16	11	16	+0	59
14	Bristol City	43	13	14	16	-3	53
15	Birmingham	43	14	11	18	-7	53
16	Hull	43	13	14	16	-11	53
17	Stoke	43	14	10	19	+4	52
18	Reading	43	13	10	20	-19	49
19	Rotherham	42	10	16	16	-10	46
20	Cardiff	42	12	9	21	-14	45
21	Huddersfield	43	11	11	21	-19	44
22	QPR	43	11	11	21	-27	44
23	Wigan	43	9	13	21	-28	40
24	Blackpool	43	9	11	23	-25	38

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	21	15	6	0	+32	51
2	Middlesbrough	22	13	6	3	+27	45
3	Sheffield United	21	14	3	4	+23	45
4	Blackburn	21	13	3	5	+9	42
5	Millwall	22	11	6	5	+13	39
6	West Brom	21	10	7	4	+11	37
7	Reading	22	10	7	5	+7	37
8	Watford	22	10	6	6	+10	36
9	Luton	20	9	7	4	+9	34
10	Swansea	22	10	4	8	+5	34
11	Bristol City	21	8	7	6	+6	31
12	Rotherham	21	8	6	7	+7	30
13	Coventry	19	8	6	5	+2	30
14	Norwich	21	8	5	8	+4	29
15	Hull	21	8	5	8	-4	29
16	Sunderland	21	7	7	7	+0	28
17	Birmingham	21	7	6	8	+2	27
18	Huddersfield	21	7	6	8	-2	27
19	Preston	21	7	6	8	-5	27
20	Cardiff	21	6	6	9	-3	24
21	Blackpool	22	6	6	10	-5	24
22	Stoke	22	6	5	11	-1	23
23	QPR	22	6	5	11	-12	23
24	Wigan	21	4	6	11	-19	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	21	11	8	2	+16	41
2	Luton	20	11	5	4	+8	38
3	Sheffield United	21	11	4	6	+6	37
4	Preston	22	10	5	7	-3	35
5	Norwich	22	9	6	7	+4	33
6	Sunderland	20	9	5	6	+9	32
7	Coventry	22	7	8	7	+6	29
8	Stoke	21	8	5	8	+5	29
9	Middlesbrough	20	9	2	9	+4	29
10	West Brom	21	7	5	9	-2	26
11	Millwall	21	7	5	9	-5	26
12	Birmingham	22	7	5	10	-9	26
13	Swansea	21	6	7	8	-5	25
14	Hull	22	5	9	8	-7	24
15	Watford	21	5	8	8	-8	23
16	Bristol City	22	5	7	10	-9	22
17	Wigan	22	5	7	10	-9	22
18	Blackburn	21	6	4	11	-11	22
19	Cardiff	21	6	3	12	-11	21
20	QPR	21	5	6	10	-15	21
21	Huddersfield	22	4	5	13	-17	17
22	Rotherham	21	2	10	9	-17	16
23	Blackpool	21	3	5	13	-20	14
24	Reading	21	3	3	15	-26	12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.