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Championship

Referee: A Davies

QPR

U S T U S

2–1

Full-time

Luton

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

QPR Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 26%

24%

28%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

40%

56%

Both score Ø 58%

60%

56%

Average goals

2,4

2,7

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,18 xG 2,21

53% Possession 47%

15 Shots 18

6 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match QPR 15. · Luton 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	26	15	8	3	+29	+27.8	53
2	Burnley	26	14	10	2	+22	+6.8	52
3	Sunderland	24	14	7	3	+18	+6.7	49
4	Sheffield United	24	14	6	4	+17	+9.8	48
5	Middlesbrough	26	11	8	7	+11	+13.7	41
6	West Brom	26	9	13	4	+11	+4.4	40
7	Blackburn	25	11	6	8	+5	+0.6	39
8	Bristol City	25	9	10	6	+4	+5.3	37
9	Watford	25	11	4	10	-1	-3.8	37
10	Sheffield Weds	26	10	7	9	-2	-4.5	37
11	Norwich	26	9	9	8	+6	+7.4	36
12	Swansea	26	9	7	10	+0	+1.6	34
13	Millwall	25	7	9	9	+1	+5.9	30
14	Preston	26	6	12	8	-6	-0.7	30
15	QPR	25	6	11	8	-6	-6.7	29
16	Coventry	25	7	7	11	-3	+14.2	28
17	Oxford	25	7	7	11	-12	-14.6	28
18	Derby	26	7	6	13	-4	-4.1	27
19	Stoke	26	6	9	11	-8	-12.6	27
20	Luton	25	7	4	14	-16	-3.6	25
21	Portsmouth	24	5	8	11	-11	-13.6	23
22	Hull	26	5	8	13	-11	-3.8	23
23	Cardiff	25	5	8	12	-15	-11.4	23
24	Plymouth	25	4	8	13	-29	-24.7	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	13	10	2	1	+23	+17.8	32
2	Sunderland	12	9	3	0	+14	+7.1	30
3	Watford	13	9	2	2	+9	+2.2	29
4	Sheffield United	11	8	2	1	+11	+9.9	26
5	Burnley	12	6	6	0	+11	+5.2	24
6	Norwich	13	6	5	2	+13	+9.8	23
7	Bristol City	12	6	5	1	+10	+7.4	23
8	Blackburn	13	7	2	4	+6	+4.7	23
9	Middlesbrough	14	6	5	3	+5	+7.7	23
10	Preston	14	5	7	2	+4	+4.6	22
11	Oxford	13	6	4	3	+2	-3.2	22
12	West Brom	12	5	6	1	+7	+4.1	21
13	Luton	13	6	3	4	+2	+3.8	21
14	Derby	12	6	2	4	+8	+3.4	20
15	Swansea	13	5	5	3	+6	+9.0	20
16	Millwall	13	6	2	5	+4	+7.2	20
17	Sheffield Weds	14	5	5	4	+2	+1.1	20
18	Coventry	12	5	3	4	+6	+12.1	18
19	Stoke	14	4	6	4	+1	-3.7	18
20	Plymouth	11	4	5	2	+3	-1.4	17
21	QPR	13	4	5	4	+0	+4.0	17
22	Portsmouth	11	4	4	3	+6	+1.4	16
23	Cardiff	12	4	1	7	-5	-4.6	13
24	Hull	14	2	6	6	-4	+1.4	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	14	8	4	2	+11	+1.6	28
2	Sheffield United	13	6	4	3	+6	-0.1	22
3	Leeds	13	5	6	2	+6	+10.0	21
4	West Brom	14	4	7	3	+4	+0.2	19
5	Sunderland	12	5	4	3	+4	-0.4	19
6	Middlesbrough	12	5	3	4	+6	+6.0	18
7	Sheffield Weds	12	5	2	5	-4	-5.6	17
8	Blackburn	12	4	4	4	-1	-4.1	16
9	Bristol City	13	3	5	5	-6	-2.1	14
10	Swansea	13	4	2	7	-6	-7.4	14
11	Norwich	13	3	4	6	-7	-2.4	13
12	QPR	12	2	6	4	-6	-10.7	12
13	Hull	12	3	2	7	-7	-5.2	11
14	Millwall	12	1	7	4	-3	-1.3	10
15	Coventry	13	2	4	7	-9	+2.1	10
16	Cardiff	13	1	7	5	-10	-6.7	10
17	Stoke	12	2	3	7	-9	-8.9	9
18	Watford	12	2	2	8	-10	-6.0	8
19	Preston	12	1	5	6	-10	-5.4	8
20	Derby	14	1	4	9	-12	-7.5	7
21	Portsmouth	13	1	4	8	-17	-15.1	7
22	Oxford	12	1	3	8	-14	-11.4	6
23	Luton	12	1	1	10	-18	-7.4	4
24	Plymouth	14	0	3	11	-32	-23.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.