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Championship

Referee: D Webb

Millwall

U T U S T

2–2

Full-time

Cardiff

U U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 26/27 matches

Win Ø 25%

27%

22%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

23%

37%

Both score Ø 43%

38%

48%

Average goals

1,8

2,6

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

0,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

0,52 xG 1,11

42% Possession 58%

7 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 2

2 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 17. · Cardiff 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	27	16	8	3	+32	+29.3	56
2	Sheffield United	26	16	6	4	+20	+11.8	54
3	Burnley	27	14	11	2	+22	+4.7	53
4	Sunderland	26	15	8	3	+19	+9.3	53
5	Middlesbrough	28	12	8	8	+12	+14.4	44
6	Blackburn	28	12	6	10	+5	-1.3	42
7	West Brom	28	9	14	5	+9	+5.0	41
8	Watford	28	12	5	11	+0	-5.3	41
9	QPR	28	9	11	8	-3	-3.8	38
10	Bristol City	26	9	10	7	+3	+5.1	37
11	Sheffield Weds	27	10	7	10	-5	-6.0	37
12	Norwich	27	9	9	9	+4	+5.6	36
13	Oxford	28	9	8	11	-10	-14.1	35
14	Coventry	27	9	7	11	+0	+16.1	34
15	Swansea	28	9	7	12	-4	+0.9	34
16	Preston	28	7	13	8	-5	+0.9	34
17	Millwall	26	7	9	10	+0	+6.0	30
18	Stoke	27	6	10	11	-8	-13.2	28
19	Derby	28	7	6	15	-7	-5.1	27
20	Cardiff	27	6	9	12	-12	-10.9	27
21	Hull	28	6	8	14	-11	-4.1	26
22	Portsmouth	26	6	8	12	-13	-14.8	26
23	Luton	28	7	5	16	-18	-3.3	26
24	Plymouth	27	4	9	14	-30	-27.3	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	14	11	2	1	+26	+19.3	35
2	Sunderland	12	9	3	0	+14	+7.1	30
3	Sheffield United	12	9	2	1	+13	+11.7	29
4	Watford	14	9	2	3	+8	+0.2	29
5	Oxford	15	8	4	3	+4	-2.6	28
6	Middlesbrough	15	7	5	3	+7	+7.6	26
7	Blackburn	15	8	2	5	+7	+3.2	26
8	Burnley	13	6	7	0	+11	+3.0	25
9	Norwich	13	6	5	2	+13	+9.8	23
10	Bristol City	12	6	5	1	+10	+7.4	23
11	West Brom	13	5	7	1	+7	+4.7	22
12	Preston	14	5	7	2	+4	+4.6	22
13	Luton	14	6	4	4	+2	+4.2	22
14	Coventry	13	6	3	4	+7	+12.3	21
15	Swansea	14	5	5	4	+5	+8.8	20
16	Derby	14	6	2	6	+5	+2.4	20
17	Millwall	14	6	2	6	+3	+7.3	20
18	Sheffield Weds	14	5	5	4	+2	+1.1	20
19	QPR	14	5	5	4	+1	+4.0	20
20	Portsmouth	12	5	4	3	+7	+0.6	19
21	Plymouth	13	4	6	3	+2	-4.1	18
22	Stoke	14	4	6	4	+1	-3.7	18
23	Cardiff	14	5	2	7	-2	-4.1	17
24	Hull	15	2	6	7	-5	+1.2	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	14	8	4	2	+11	+1.6	28
2	Sheffield United	14	7	4	3	+7	+0.2	25
3	Sunderland	14	6	5	3	+5	+2.2	23
4	Leeds	13	5	6	2	+6	+10.0	21
5	West Brom	15	4	7	4	+2	+0.3	19
6	Middlesbrough	13	5	3	5	+5	+6.8	18
7	QPR	14	4	6	4	-4	-7.8	18
8	Sheffield Weds	13	5	2	6	-7	-7.1	17
9	Blackburn	13	4	4	5	-2	-4.5	16
10	Hull	13	4	2	7	-6	-5.3	14
11	Bristol City	14	3	5	6	-7	-2.3	14
12	Swansea	14	4	2	8	-9	-7.9	14
13	Coventry	14	3	4	7	-7	+3.8	13
14	Norwich	14	3	4	7	-9	-4.2	13
15	Watford	14	3	3	8	-8	-5.4	12
16	Preston	14	2	6	6	-9	-3.8	12
17	Millwall	12	1	7	4	-3	-1.3	10
18	Stoke	13	2	4	7	-9	-9.5	10
19	Cardiff	13	1	7	5	-10	-6.7	10
20	Derby	14	1	4	9	-12	-7.5	7
21	Oxford	13	1	4	8	-14	-11.5	7
22	Portsmouth	14	1	4	9	-20	-15.4	7
23	Luton	14	1	1	12	-20	-7.5	4
24	Plymouth	14	0	3	11	-32	-23.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.