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Championship

Referee: G Ward

Luton

T T T U T

0–1

Full-time

Millwall

T U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 28/27 matches

Win Ø 26%

25%

26%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

57%

26%

Both score Ø 49%

57%

41%

Average goals

2,7

1,9

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,45 xG 1,60

55% Possession 45%

12 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 5

3 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 23. · Millwall 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	28	17	8	3	+34	+30.4	59
2	Burnley	28	15	11	2	+27	+7.0	56
3	Sheffield United	27	16	6	5	+17	+12.6	54
4	Sunderland	26	15	8	3	+19	+9.3	53
5	Middlesbrough	28	12	8	8	+12	+14.4	44
6	Blackburn	28	12	6	10	+5	-1.3	42
7	West Brom	28	9	14	5	+9	+5.0	41
8	Watford	28	12	5	11	+0	-5.3	41
9	Bristol City	27	9	11	7	+3	+5.1	38
10	QPR	28	9	11	8	-3	-3.8	38
11	Sheffield Weds	28	10	8	10	-5	-6.0	38
12	Norwich	28	9	9	10	+2	+4.5	36
13	Oxford	28	9	8	11	-10	-14.1	35
14	Coventry	27	9	7	11	+0	+16.1	34
15	Swansea	28	9	7	12	-4	+0.9	34
16	Preston	28	7	13	8	-5	+0.9	34
17	Millwall	27	7	10	10	+0	+5.4	31
18	Hull	29	7	8	14	-8	-4.8	29
19	Portsmouth	27	7	8	12	-11	-13.4	29
20	Stoke	28	6	10	12	-10	-14.6	28
21	Cardiff	28	6	10	12	-12	-10.3	28
22	Derby	28	7	6	15	-7	-5.1	27
23	Luton	28	7	5	16	-18	-3.3	26
24	Plymouth	28	4	9	15	-35	-29.6	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	15	12	2	1	+28	+20.4	38
2	Sunderland	12	9	3	0	+14	+7.1	30
3	Sheffield United	13	9	2	2	+10	+12.4	29
4	Watford	14	9	2	3	+8	+0.2	29
5	Oxford	15	8	4	3	+4	-2.6	28
6	Middlesbrough	15	7	5	3	+7	+7.6	26
7	Blackburn	15	8	2	5	+7	+3.2	26
8	Burnley	13	6	7	0	+11	+3.0	25
9	Norwich	13	6	5	2	+13	+9.8	23
10	Bristol City	12	6	5	1	+10	+7.4	23
11	Portsmouth	13	6	4	3	+9	+2.0	22
12	West Brom	13	5	7	1	+7	+4.7	22
13	Preston	14	5	7	2	+4	+4.6	22
14	Luton	14	6	4	4	+2	+4.2	22
15	Coventry	13	6	3	4	+7	+12.3	21
16	Millwall	15	6	3	6	+3	+6.7	21
17	Sheffield Weds	15	5	6	4	+2	+1.1	21
18	Swansea	14	5	5	4	+5	+8.8	20
19	Derby	14	6	2	6	+5	+2.4	20
20	QPR	14	5	5	4	+1	+4.0	20
21	Stoke	14	4	6	4	+1	-3.7	18
22	Plymouth	14	4	6	4	-3	-6.4	18
23	Cardiff	14	5	2	7	-2	-4.1	17
24	Hull	15	2	6	7	-5	+1.2	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	15	9	4	2	+16	+3.9	31
2	Sheffield United	14	7	4	3	+7	+0.2	25
3	Sunderland	14	6	5	3	+5	+2.2	23
4	Leeds	13	5	6	2	+6	+10.0	21
5	West Brom	15	4	7	4	+2	+0.3	19
6	Middlesbrough	13	5	3	5	+5	+6.8	18
7	QPR	14	4	6	4	-4	-7.8	18
8	Hull	14	5	2	7	-3	-6.0	17
9	Sheffield Weds	13	5	2	6	-7	-7.1	17
10	Blackburn	13	4	4	5	-2	-4.5	16
11	Bristol City	15	3	6	6	-7	-2.3	15
12	Swansea	14	4	2	8	-9	-7.9	14
13	Coventry	14	3	4	7	-7	+3.8	13
14	Norwich	15	3	4	8	-11	-5.3	13
15	Watford	14	3	3	8	-8	-5.4	12
16	Preston	14	2	6	6	-9	-3.8	12
17	Cardiff	14	1	8	5	-10	-6.1	11
18	Millwall	12	1	7	4	-3	-1.3	10
19	Stoke	14	2	4	8	-11	-10.9	10
20	Derby	14	1	4	9	-12	-7.5	7
21	Oxford	13	1	4	8	-14	-11.5	7
22	Portsmouth	14	1	4	9	-20	-15.4	7
23	Luton	14	1	1	12	-20	-7.5	4
24	Plymouth	14	0	3	11	-32	-23.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.