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Championship

Referee: S Attwell

Norwich

S S T S U

4–2

Full-time

Watford

U U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Norwich Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,8

1,8

Scored

2,2

0,5

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 29/31 matches

Win Ø 39%

45%

32%

Points per game

1,6

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

62%

52%

Both score Ø 61%

66%

55%

Average goals

3,1

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,96 xG 1,49

44% Possession 56%

14 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Norwich 8. · Watford 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	31	24	3	4	+42	+25.8	75
2	Southampton	29	18	7	4	+24	+21.4	61
3	Ipswich	30	17	9	4	+15	+16.6	60
4	Leeds	29	17	6	6	+27	+27.0	57
5	West Brom	29	14	7	8	+15	+5.6	49
6	Coventry	31	12	11	8	+13	+7.3	47
7	Sunderland	31	14	5	12	+10	+12.0	47
8	Norwich	29	13	6	10	+5	-5.1	45
9	Hull	30	13	6	11	+4	+5.8	45
10	Preston	31	13	6	12	-9	-13.0	45
11	Watford	31	10	11	10	+5	+2.8	41
12	Middlesbrough	30	12	5	13	+0	+13.9	41
13	Bristol City	31	11	8	12	+0	+0.8	41
14	Cardiff	30	12	4	14	-5	-13.3	40
15	Plymouth	30	9	9	12	-1	-13.8	36
16	Swansea	31	9	9	13	-8	-10.4	36
17	Blackburn	30	11	3	16	-11	-3.6	36
18	Millwall	31	8	9	14	-9	-8.6	33
19	Birmingham	30	8	8	14	-13	-5.6	32
20	Stoke	31	8	8	15	-16	-4.1	32
21	Huddersfield	31	6	13	12	-16	-11.8	31
22	QPR	31	7	8	16	-14	-9.9	29
23	Sheffield Weds	31	7	5	19	-26	-7.3	26
24	Rotherham	30	3	10	17	-32	-32.7	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	15	11	4	0	+23	+20.0	37
2	Leicester	15	12	1	2	+22	+13.0	37
3	Ipswich	15	10	4	1	+14	+15.5	34
4	West Brom	15	10	3	2	+14	+9.3	33
5	Southampton	14	10	2	2	+20	+15.5	32
6	Sunderland	16	10	0	6	+9	+9.5	30
7	Coventry	16	7	8	1	+10	+7.0	29
8	Norwich	14	9	2	3	+9	+3.5	29
9	Plymouth	14	8	3	3	+13	-2.2	27
10	Preston	15	8	2	5	-3	-5.8	26
11	Hull	16	7	4	5	+7	+7.7	25
12	Birmingham	14	5	6	3	+3	-0.3	21
13	Bristol City	15	6	3	6	+1	+1.7	21
14	Middlesbrough	16	6	3	7	-1	+9.1	21
15	Watford	16	5	5	6	+5	+8.4	20
16	Cardiff	15	6	2	7	-2	-7.5	20
17	Blackburn	16	6	2	8	-4	+2.5	20
18	Sheffield Weds	16	5	4	7	-3	+0.8	19
19	Huddersfield	15	4	6	5	-2	-3.2	18
20	Swansea	15	4	5	6	-2	-0.4	17
21	Millwall	15	4	4	7	-7	-1.8	16
22	Stoke	15	4	4	7	-9	+0.8	16
23	Rotherham	15	3	6	6	-4	-8.5	15
24	QPR	16	3	5	8	-7	-2.4	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	16	12	2	2	+20	+12.8	38
2	Southampton	15	8	5	2	+4	+5.9	29
3	Ipswich	15	7	5	3	+1	+1.0	26
4	Watford	15	5	6	4	+0	-5.6	21
5	Leeds	14	6	2	6	+4	+7.0	20
6	Middlesbrough	14	6	2	6	+1	+4.8	20
7	Bristol City	16	5	5	6	-1	-0.9	20
8	Hull	14	6	2	6	-3	-1.9	20
9	Cardiff	15	6	2	7	-3	-5.8	20
10	Swansea	16	5	4	7	-6	-10.0	19
11	Preston	16	5	4	7	-6	-7.2	19
12	Coventry	15	5	3	7	+3	+0.4	18
13	Sunderland	15	4	5	6	+1	+2.6	17
14	Millwall	16	4	5	7	-2	-6.8	17
15	West Brom	14	4	4	6	+1	-3.7	16
16	Norwich	15	4	4	7	-4	-8.7	16
17	Blackburn	14	5	1	8	-7	-6.1	16
18	Stoke	16	4	4	8	-7	-4.8	16
19	QPR	15	4	3	8	-7	-7.5	15
20	Huddersfield	16	2	7	7	-14	-8.6	13
21	Birmingham	16	3	2	11	-16	-5.3	11
22	Plymouth	16	1	6	9	-14	-11.6	9
23	Sheffield Weds	15	2	1	12	-23	-8.1	7
24	Rotherham	15	0	4	11	-28	-24.2	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.