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Championship

Referee: J Smith

Norwich

T T T U S

4–2

Full-time

Luton

U S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Norwich Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,0

3,0

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

53%

59%

Both score Ø 59%

65%

53%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,1

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,85 xG 1,51

69% Possession 31%

16 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 5

3 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Norwich 10. · Luton 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	18	10	5	3	+18	+17.9	35
2	Sheffield United	16	10	4	2	+14	+7.5	34
3	Burnley	17	9	6	2	+15	+4.7	33
4	Sunderland	16	9	5	2	+14	+2.0	32
5	Middlesbrough	18	9	3	6	+11	+16.6	30
6	Watford	18	9	3	6	+2	-2.9	30
7	Blackburn	17	8	4	5	+4	+0.6	28
8	West Brom	17	6	9	2	+7	+5.1	27
9	Millwall	17	6	7	4	+5	+8.5	25
10	Norwich	17	5	7	5	+6	+3.8	22
11	Swansea	17	6	4	7	+1	-3.6	22
12	Bristol City	16	5	7	4	+0	+0.5	22
13	Sheffield Weds	17	6	4	7	-6	-0.4	22
14	Stoke	17	5	6	6	-1	-7.1	21
15	Derby	17	5	5	7	-1	+0.1	20
16	Oxford	18	4	6	8	-8	-11.2	18
17	Luton	17	5	3	9	-11	-1.5	18
18	Preston	17	3	8	6	-8	-3.6	17
19	Plymouth	17	4	5	8	-16	-19.3	17
20	Coventry	16	4	4	8	-3	+5.1	16
21	Cardiff	17	4	4	9	-11	-6.6	16
22	Hull	18	3	6	9	-9	-2.9	15
23	QPR	18	2	9	7	-11	-5.3	15
24	Portsmouth	15	2	6	7	-12	-7.9	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Watford	9	7	2	0	+9	+1.4	23
2	Leeds	9	7	1	1	+15	+12.5	22
3	Sheffield United	8	7	1	0	+11	+9.3	22
4	Blackburn	9	6	1	2	+6	+2.5	19
5	Burnley	8	5	3	0	+10	+4.1	18
6	Sunderland	7	5	2	0	+10	+2.9	17
7	Millwall	9	5	2	2	+6	+8.1	17
8	Middlesbrough	10	5	2	3	+4	+8.4	17
9	Oxford	10	4	4	2	+1	-4.4	16
10	Plymouth	8	4	3	1	+4	-2.5	15
11	Derby	8	4	2	2	+5	+5.0	14
12	Luton	9	4	2	3	+1	+3.2	14
13	Norwich	8	3	4	1	+10	+4.7	13
14	Stoke	9	3	4	2	+4	-0.4	13
15	Preston	9	3	4	2	+1	+2.2	13
16	Swansea	8	3	3	2	+3	+4.5	12
17	Sheffield Weds	9	3	3	3	-1	+3.3	12
18	Cardiff	9	4	0	5	-1	-2.0	12
19	West Brom	8	2	5	1	+1	+4.6	11
20	Coventry	8	3	1	4	+1	+6.4	10
21	Bristol City	7	2	4	1	+1	-1.1	10
22	Hull	9	1	4	4	-3	+0.2	7
23	Portsmouth	7	1	3	3	-4	-1.3	6
24	QPR	9	0	5	4	-8	+0.6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	9	4	4	1	+6	+0.5	16
2	Burnley	9	4	3	2	+5	+0.7	15
3	Sunderland	9	4	3	2	+4	-0.9	15
4	Middlesbrough	8	4	1	3	+7	+8.1	13
5	Leeds	9	3	4	2	+3	+5.5	13
6	Sheffield United	8	3	3	2	+3	-1.8	12
7	Bristol City	9	3	3	3	-1	+1.6	12
8	Swansea	9	3	1	5	-2	-8.1	10
9	QPR	9	2	4	3	-3	-5.9	10
10	Sheffield Weds	8	3	1	4	-5	-3.7	10
11	Blackburn	8	2	3	3	-2	-1.9	9
12	Norwich	9	2	3	4	-4	-0.9	9
13	Millwall	8	1	5	2	-1	+0.4	8
14	Stoke	8	2	2	4	-5	-6.7	8
15	Hull	9	2	2	5	-6	-3.1	8
16	Watford	9	2	1	6	-7	-4.3	7
17	Coventry	8	1	3	4	-4	-1.3	6
18	Derby	9	1	3	5	-6	-4.9	6
19	Portsmouth	8	1	3	4	-8	-6.6	6
20	Preston	8	0	4	4	-9	-5.8	4
21	Cardiff	8	0	4	4	-10	-4.6	4
22	Luton	8	1	1	6	-12	-4.7	4
23	Oxford	8	0	2	6	-9	-6.8	2
24	Plymouth	9	0	2	7	-20	-16.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.