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Championship

Referee: J Busby

Swansea

U T U S U

0–2

Full-time

Luton

U U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

1,8

Scored

1,0

0,5

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

This season — Championship · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

1,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

2,5

1,3

Scored

1,0

0,3

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

75% Possession 25%

14 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 5

8 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 15. · Luton 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	4	3	0	1	+2	9
2	Hull	4	2	2	0	+2	8
3	Watford	4	2	2	0	+2	8
4	Sheffield United	4	2	1	1	+2	7
5	Norwich	5	2	1	2	+1	7
6	Cardiff	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Millwall	5	2	1	2	-1	7
8	Preston	4	1	3	0	+1	6
9	Reading	4	2	0	2	-1	6
10	Blackpool	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Rotherham	3	1	2	0	+4	5
12	Sunderland	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Burnley	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Birmingham	4	1	2	1	+0	5
15	Swansea	4	1	2	1	-2	5
16	Bristol City	4	1	1	2	+0	4
17	QPR	4	1	1	2	-1	4
18	Stoke	4	1	1	2	-2	4
19	Wigan	3	0	3	0	+0	3
20	Middlesbrough	4	0	3	1	-1	3
21	Huddersfield	4	1	0	3	-1	3
22	West Brom	4	0	3	1	-1	3
23	Luton	4	0	2	2	-3	2
24	Coventry	2	0	1	1	-1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	3	2	1	0	+3	7
2	Reading	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Millwall	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Sheffield United	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Hull	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Blackburn	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Watford	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	Rotherham	2	1	1	0	+4	4
10	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+2	4
11	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	+1	3
14	QPR	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Sunderland	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Middlesbrough	2	0	2	0	+0	2
18	Burnley	2	0	2	0	+0	2
19	West Brom	2	0	2	0	+0	2
20	Wigan	2	0	2	0	+0	2
21	Preston	2	0	2	0	+0	2
22	Luton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	Swansea	2	0	1	1	-3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
2	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	4
3	Sunderland	2	1	0	1	+0	3
4	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	3
5	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-1	3
7	Watford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
8	Hull	2	0	2	0	+0	2
9	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Middlesbrough	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Coventry	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Sheffield United	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	QPR	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	West Brom	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Cardiff	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Birmingham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Luton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	Millwall	3	0	1	2	-4	1
21	Huddersfield	2	0	0	2	-2	0
22	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-2	0
23	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-4	0
24	Reading	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.