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Championship
Referee: D England
Luton
S U U U T
3–1
Full-time
Norwich
U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Norwich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,3
2,2
Scored
0,7
1,5
Conceded
1,7
0,7
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,8
This season — Championship · 14/14 matches
Win Ø 47%
36%
57%
Points per game
1,4
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 29%
21%
36%
Both score Ø 43%
36%
50%
Average goals
2,0
2,1
Scored
0,8
1,3
Conceded
1,2
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,4
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

32% Possession 68%
10 Shots 11
5 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 9
1 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Luton 15. · Norwich 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Norwich 14 8 4 2 +7 28
2 Bournemouth 15 7 6 2 +9 27
3 Bristol City 15 8 3 4 +4 27
4 Watford 14 7 5 2 +8 26
5 Reading 14 8 2 4 +5 26
6 Brentford 14 7 4 3 +9 25
7 Swansea 14 7 4 3 +7 25
8 Middlesbrough 15 6 6 3 +6 24
9 Stoke 14 6 4 4 +3 22
10 Blackburn 14 6 3 5 +11 21
11 Cardiff 15 5 5 5 +7 20
12 Millwall 14 4 8 2 +2 20
13 Barnsley 15 5 4 6 +0 19
14 Preston 15 6 1 8 -3 19
15 Luton 14 5 4 5 -6 19
16 Huddersfield 15 5 3 7 -4 18
17 QPR 15 4 5 6 -5 17
18 Birmingham 15 3 7 5 -3 16
19 Sheffield Weds 14 3 5 6 -5 14
20 Coventry 15 3 5 7 -10 14
21 Rotherham 15 3 4 8 -6 13
22 Nott'm Forest 14 3 3 8 -8 12
23 Wycombe 14 2 4 8 -13 10
24 Derby 15 1 5 9 -15 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Luton Norwich
1–0 G. Moncur
K. Dewsbury-Hall
15′
James Shea 🟨
18′
19′
E. Buendía 1–1
2–1 M. Pearson
R. Norrington-Davies
22′
33′
🟨 Przemyslaw Płacheta
J. Bree 🔁
↦ M. Cranie
45′
Half-time 3–1
3–1 J. Collins
47′
J. Morrell 🔁
↦ G. Moncur
70′
72′
🔁 M. Vrančić
↦ A. Tettey
81′
🔁 C. Zimmermann
↦ E. Buendía
85′
🟨 Christoph Zimmermann
85′
🔁 T. Omotoye
↦ J. Martin
D. Potts 🔁
↦ K. Dewsbury-Hall
94′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Luton

4-1-4-1
1 J. Shea G
2 M. Cranie D
15 T. Lockyer D
6 M. Pearson D
16 G. Rea M
24 R. Norrington-Davies D
8 L. Berry M
18 J. Clark M
14 G. Moncur M
22 K. Dewsbury-Hall M
19 J. Collins F
Bench (9)
26 J. Bree
28 J. Morrell
3 D. Potts
23 B. Galloway
25 K. LuaLua
4 R. Tunnicliffe
7 H. Cornick
27 S. Nombe
21 H. Isted

Coach: N. Jones

Norwich

4-2-3-1
33 M. McGovern G
5 G. Hanley D
34 B. Gibson D
2 M. Aarons D
27 A. Tettey M
18 M. Stiepermann M
17 E. Buendía M
11 P. Płacheta F
19 J. Sørensen D
20 O. Skipp M
24 J. Martin M
Bench (7)
8 M. Vrančić
6 C. Zimmermann
53 T. Omotoye
57 T. Dickson-Peters
44 A. Omobamidele
42 R. McAlear
50 D. Barden

Coach: D. Farke

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
3,21
U
3,50
B
2,18
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,91
U2,5
1,89
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

D England · 172 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.