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Premier League
Referee: A Taylor
West Ham
T S T U S
2–5
Full-time
Arsenal
T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

West Ham Arsenal
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,0
2,7
Scored
1,5
2,0
Conceded
1,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
58%
42%
Both score Ø 54%
58%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,8
Scored
1,3
1,8
Conceded
1,6
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–5

1,54 xG 3,60
40% Possession 60%
12 Shots 16
5 Shots on target 7
4 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 10
1 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 13
4 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match West Ham 14. · Arsenal 5.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Liverpool 12 10 1 1 +16 +13.1 31
2 Brighton 13 6 5 2 +5 -1.9 23
3 Man City 12 7 2 3 +5 +8.6 23
4 Chelsea 12 6 4 2 +9 +6.4 22
5 Arsenal 12 6 4 2 +9 +6.0 22
6 Nott'm Forest 13 6 4 3 +3 +3.5 22
7 Brentford 13 6 2 5 +3 -0.3 20
8 Tottenham 12 6 1 5 +14 +8.9 19
9 Aston Villa 12 5 4 3 +0 +5.1 19
10 Newcastle 13 5 4 4 +0 +0.8 19
11 Bournemouth 13 5 3 5 +1 +7.7 18
12 Fulham 12 5 3 4 +0 +4.1 18
13 Man United 12 4 4 4 +0 -0.4 16
14 West Ham 12 4 3 5 -4 -3.8 15
15 Everton 12 2 5 5 -7 -3.7 11
16 Leicester 13 2 4 7 -11 -12.3 10
17 Crystal Palace 13 1 6 6 -7 -2.6 9
18 Wolves 13 2 3 8 -10 -10.9 9
19 Ipswich 13 1 6 6 -11 -14.7 9
20 Southampton 13 1 2 10 -15 -13.5 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

West Ham Arsenal
10′
Gabriel Magalhães 0–1
B. Saka
27′
L. Trossard 0–2
B. Saka
34′
M. Ødegaard 0–3
36′
K. Havertz 0–4
L. Trossard
1–4 A. Wan-Bissaka
Carlos Soler
38′
2–4 Emerson
40′
Emerson Palmieri 🟨
42′
42′
🟨 Bukayo Saka
Half-time 2–4
Crysencio Summerville 🟨
46′
E. Álvarez 🔁
↦ C. Summerville
46′
46′
🔁 J. Kiwior
↦ Gabriel Magalhães
Łukasz Fabiański 🟨
48′
50′
B. Saka 2–5
56′
🔁 O. Zinchenko
↦ R. Calafiori
D. Ings 🔁
↦ M. Antonio
65′
V. Coufal 🔁
↦ Emerson
65′
74′
🔁 Gabriel Jesus
↦ M. Ødegaard
74′
🔁 R. Sterling
↦ B. Saka
G. Rodríguez 🔁
↦ Lucas Paquetá
77′
A. Irving 🔁
↦ Carlos Soler
78′
85′
🔁 E. Nwaneri
↦ L. Trossard
Tomáš Souček 🟨
94′
Full-time 2–5

Line-ups

West Ham

4-2-3-1
1 Ł. Fabiański G
29 A. Wan-Bissaka D
25 J. Todibo D
26 M. Kilman D
33 Emerson D
28 T. Souček M
10 Lucas Paquetá M
20 J. Bowen M
4 Carlos Soler M
7 C. Summerville M
9 M. Antonio F
Bench (9)
19 E. Álvarez
18 D. Ings
5 V. Coufal
24 G. Rodríguez
39 A. Irving
57 O. Scarles
23 A. Areola
17 Luis Guilherme
63 E. Mayers

Coach: Lopetegui

Arsenal

4-3-3
22 David Raya G
12 J. Timber D
2 W. Saliba D
6 Gabriel Magalhães D
33 R. Calafiori D
8 M. Ødegaard M
20 Jorginho M
41 D. Rice M
7 B. Saka F
29 K. Havertz F
19 L. Trossard F
Bench (9)
15 J. Kiwior
17 O. Zinchenko
9 Gabriel Jesus
30 R. Sterling
53 E. Nwaneri
3 K. Tierney
32 Neto
11 Gabriel Martinelli
51 J. Nichols

Coach: Mikel Arteta

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
7,09
U
4,68
B ✓
1,46
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,70
U2,5
2,19
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

A Taylor · 215 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.