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Ligue 1

Referee: R Lissorgue

Brest

T S T T T

3–1

Full-time

Strasbourg

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brest Strasbourg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,2

3,8

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

2,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 29%

33%

25%

Points per game

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

58%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,2

3,8

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,46 xG 1,02

38% Possession 62%

11 Shots 12

8 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brest 13. · Strasbourg 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	10	2	0	+26	+21.4	32
2	Monaco	12	8	2	2	+11	+14.5	26
3	Marseille	12	7	2	3	+11	-2.8	23
4	Lille	12	6	4	2	+8	+4.2	22
5	Nice	12	5	5	2	+11	+8.2	20
6	Lens	13	5	5	3	+3	+6.2	20
7	Lyon	12	5	4	3	+3	+5.1	19
8	Auxerre	12	6	1	5	+2	-2.8	19
9	Reims	13	5	3	5	+2	-4.7	18
10	Toulouse	12	4	3	5	-1	+7.8	15
11	Rennes	13	4	2	7	-1	+1.1	14
12	Strasbourg	12	3	4	5	-3	-5.8	13
13	Brest	12	4	1	7	-6	-9.2	13
14	St Etienne	13	4	1	8	-19	-12.0	13
15	Le Havre	12	4	0	8	-13	-7.9	12
16	Nantes	12	2	4	6	-5	-3.9	10
17	Angers	12	2	4	6	-8	-7.1	10
18	Montpellier	12	2	1	9	-21	-12.3	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	6	0	0	+16	+10.0	18
2	Auxerre	6	5	0	1	+7	+3.6	15
3	Monaco	7	4	2	1	+4	+7.7	14
4	Rennes	7	4	1	2	+9	+5.4	13
5	Nice	6	3	3	0	+10	+7.2	12
6	St Etienne	6	4	0	2	+2	+2.9	12
7	Strasbourg	6	3	2	1	+3	-0.1	11
8	Lille	6	3	2	1	+2	-0.2	11
9	Brest	6	3	1	2	+3	-1.0	10
10	Lyon	6	3	1	2	+1	+3.6	10
11	Toulouse	6	2	2	2	+0	+3.4	8
12	Lens	6	2	2	2	-1	+5.9	8
13	Reims	7	2	2	3	-2	-2.6	8
14	Montpellier	6	2	1	3	-7	-1.6	7
15	Le Havre	6	2	0	4	-10	-5.7	6
16	Nantes	6	1	2	3	-2	+2.0	5
17	Marseille	5	1	2	2	-3	-1.2	5
18	Angers	6	1	1	4	-6	-4.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	7	6	0	1	+14	-1.6	18
2	Paris SG	6	4	2	0	+10	+11.4	14
3	Monaco	5	4	0	1	+7	+6.9	12
4	Lens	7	3	3	1	+4	+0.4	12
5	Lille	6	3	2	1	+6	+4.4	11
6	Reims	6	3	1	2	+4	-2.1	10
7	Lyon	6	2	3	1	+2	+1.5	9
8	Nice	6	2	2	2	+1	+1.0	8
9	Toulouse	6	2	1	3	-1	+4.4	7
10	Angers	6	1	3	2	-2	-2.9	6
11	Le Havre	6	2	0	4	-3	-2.2	6
12	Nantes	6	1	2	3	-3	-5.9	5
13	Auxerre	6	1	1	4	-5	-6.4	4
14	Brest	6	1	0	5	-9	-8.3	3
15	Strasbourg	6	0	2	4	-6	-5.7	2
16	Rennes	6	0	1	5	-10	-4.3	1
17	St Etienne	7	0	1	6	-21	-14.9	1
18	Montpellier	6	0	0	6	-14	-10.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.