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Championship
Referee: R Madley
Oxford
T T S S T
0–0
Full-time
Burnley
T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Oxford Burnley
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
2,8
2,3
Scored
1,3
1,5
Conceded
1,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,5
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,8
Scored
1,7
2,2
Conceded
1,3
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,08 xG 1,83
30% Possession 70%
3 Shots 14
1 Shots on target 1
1 Blocked shots 5
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 6
4 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Oxford 10. · Burnley 5.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 West Brom 7 5 1 1 +7 +5.3 16
2 Sunderland 6 5 0 1 +9 +4.1 15
3 Blackburn 7 4 3 0 +8 +1.5 15
4 Sheffield United 6 4 2 0 +6 +3.3 14
5 Burnley 6 4 1 1 +9 -0.8 13
6 Leeds 6 3 2 1 +5 +7.4 11
7 Norwich 7 3 2 2 +2 +2.6 11
8 Swansea 6 3 1 2 +3 -3.3 10
9 Watford 6 3 1 2 +1 -2.1 10
10 Oxford 6 3 0 3 +2 -0.9 9
11 Derby 7 3 0 4 +0 -1.8 9
12 Middlesbrough 6 2 2 2 +1 +6.3 8
13 Plymouth 7 2 2 3 -3 -8.6 8
14 Bristol City 6 2 2 2 -4 -0.1 8
15 QPR 7 1 4 2 -3 -2.4 7
16 Sheffield Weds 7 2 1 4 -5 -1.8 7
17 Luton 7 2 1 4 -5 +2.5 7
18 Hull 6 1 3 2 -2 +0.5 6
19 Stoke 6 2 0 4 -5 -1.4 6
20 Millwall 6 1 2 3 +0 +4.4 5
21 Coventry 6 1 2 3 -2 +3.8 5
22 Preston 6 1 2 3 -6 -5.8 5
23 Portsmouth 6 0 3 3 -6 -7.2 3
24 Cardiff 6 0 1 5 -12 -5.6 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Oxford Burnley
Half-time 0–0
53′
🟨 Lucas Pires
69′
🔁 J. Anthony
↦ J. Sarmiento
70′
🟨 Josh Brownhill
Tyler Goodrham 🟨
71′
K. Edwards 🔁
↦ Ruben Rodrigues
73′
O. Dale 🔁
↦ S. Dembélé
74′
79′
🔁 J. Rodríguez
↦ H. Mejbri
79′
🔁 A. Hountondji
↦ L. Foster
D. Scarlett 🔁
↦ M. Harris
83′
Full-time 0–0

Line-ups

Oxford

4-1-4-1
1 J. Cumming G
30 P. Kioso D
5 E. Moore D
16 B. Nelson D
3 C. Brown D
4 W. Vaulks M
19 T. Goodrham M
20 Ruben Rodrigues M
15 I. El Mizouni M
23 S. Dembélé M
9 M. Harris F
Bench (9)
29 K. Edwards
17 O. Dale
44 D. Scarlett
22 G. Leigh
6 J. McEachran
21 M. Ingram
2 S. Long
14 L. Sibley
11 M. Ebiowei

Coach: D. Buckingham

Burnley

4-2-3-1
1 J. Trafford G
12 B. Humphreys D
6 C. Egan-Riley D
5 M. Estève D
23 Lucas Pires D
24 J. Cullen M
8 J. Brownhill M
30 L. Koleosho M
28 H. Mejbri M
7 J. Sarmiento M
17 L. Foster F
Bench (9)
11 J. Anthony
9 J. Rodríguez
37 A. Hountondji
16 J. Egan
48 E. Agyei
42 H. Massengo
29 J. Laurent
39 O. Dodgson
32 V. Hladký

Coach: S. Parker

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,55
U ✓
3,54
B
2,04
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,90
U2,5 ✓
1,90
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

R Madley · 66 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.