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Championship

Referee: D England

Watford

U S T U T

3–0

Full-time

Birmingham

T T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,3

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

This season — Championship · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 34%

36%

31%

Points per game

1,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

36%

44%

Both score Ø 46%

42%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,4

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

50% Possession 50%

11 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 0

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 1

1 Offside 0

20 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 10. · Birmingham 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	36	23	11	2	+43	80
2	Sheffield United	36	20	7	9	+24	67
3	Middlesbrough	35	19	6	10	+24	63
4	Luton	34	16	10	8	+10	58
5	Blackburn	36	18	4	14	+0	58
6	Millwall	36	16	9	11	+8	57
7	Norwich	36	16	7	13	+11	55
8	West Brom	36	15	9	12	+8	54
9	Sunderland	35	14	9	12	+8	51
10	Watford	36	13	12	11	+2	51
11	Preston	36	13	11	12	-6	50
12	Coventry	34	13	10	11	+6	49
13	Bristol City	36	12	12	12	+2	48
14	Stoke	36	13	7	16	+3	46
15	Hull	36	12	10	14	-8	46
16	Reading	36	13	5	18	-17	44
17	Swansea	36	11	10	15	-7	43
18	Birmingham	36	11	9	16	-6	42
19	QPR	36	11	9	16	-15	42
20	Rotherham	36	9	13	14	-9	40
21	Cardiff	36	10	8	18	-13	38
22	Blackpool	36	7	11	18	-20	32
23	Huddersfield	36	8	8	20	-22	32
24	Wigan	36	7	11	18	-26	32

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	19	14	5	0	+30	47
2	Blackburn	17	12	1	4	+10	37
3	Sheffield United	18	11	3	4	+18	36
4	Middlesbrough	17	10	5	2	+18	35
5	West Brom	19	10	5	4	+11	35
6	Reading	18	10	3	5	+7	33
7	Millwall	17	9	5	3	+12	32
8	Watford	17	8	5	4	+8	29
9	Bristol City	19	8	5	6	+6	29
10	Coventry	17	8	5	4	+6	29
11	Norwich	19	8	4	7	+5	28
12	Rotherham	17	7	5	5	+8	26
13	Luton	17	6	7	4	+4	25
14	Hull	18	7	4	7	-3	25
15	Swansea	18	7	3	8	+0	24
16	Birmingham	19	6	5	8	+1	23
17	Sunderland	17	6	5	6	+0	23
18	Cardiff	18	6	5	7	-1	23
19	Stoke	18	6	4	8	+2	22
20	Huddersfield	18	6	4	8	-4	22
21	QPR	18	6	4	8	-6	22
22	Preston	19	5	6	8	-8	21
23	Blackpool	17	4	6	7	-4	18
24	Wigan	18	3	5	10	-18	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	17	9	6	2	+13	33
2	Luton	17	10	3	4	+6	33
3	Sheffield United	18	9	4	5	+6	31
4	Preston	17	8	5	4	+2	29
5	Sunderland	18	8	4	6	+8	28
6	Middlesbrough	18	9	1	8	+6	28
7	Norwich	17	8	3	6	+6	27
8	Millwall	19	7	4	8	-4	25
9	Stoke	18	7	3	8	+1	24
10	Watford	19	5	7	7	-6	22
11	Hull	18	5	6	7	-5	21
12	Blackburn	19	6	3	10	-10	21
13	Coventry	17	5	5	7	+0	20
14	QPR	18	5	5	8	-9	20
15	West Brom	17	5	4	8	-3	19
16	Bristol City	17	4	7	6	-4	19
17	Swansea	18	4	7	7	-7	19
18	Birmingham	17	5	4	8	-7	19
19	Wigan	18	4	6	8	-8	18
20	Cardiff	18	4	3	11	-12	15
21	Blackpool	19	3	5	11	-16	14
22	Rotherham	19	2	8	9	-17	14
23	Reading	18	3	2	13	-24	11
24	Huddersfield	18	2	4	12	-18	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.