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Championship

Referee: D Webb

Birmingham

T U S U T

1–1

Full-time

Watford

T T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

This season — Championship · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,3

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

0,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

29% Possession 71%

7 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 5

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 12. · Watford 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Hull	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Watford	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Millwall	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Cardiff	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Sunderland	3	1	2	0	+1	5
7	Preston	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Rotherham	2	1	1	0	+4	4
9	Sheffield United	3	1	1	1	+1	4
10	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Burnley	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Birmingham	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Swansea	3	1	1	1	-2	4
14	Huddersfield	3	1	0	2	+0	3
15	Wigan	3	0	3	0	+0	3
16	Stoke	3	1	0	2	-2	3
17	Blackpool	3	1	0	2	-2	3
18	Reading	3	1	0	2	-4	3
19	Middlesbrough	3	0	2	1	-1	2
20	West Brom	3	0	2	1	-1	2
21	Luton	3	0	2	1	-1	2
22	Coventry	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	Bristol City	3	0	1	2	-2	1
24	Norwich	3	0	1	2	-2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Millwall	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Hull	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Blackburn	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Watford	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Rotherham	2	1	1	0	+4	4
7	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	QPR	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Sunderland	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Middlesbrough	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Wigan	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Norwich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Luton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
2	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	4
3	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Coventry	2	0	1	1	-1	1
11	Sheffield United	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	QPR	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	West Brom	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Birmingham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-2	0
21	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-2	0
22	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-4	0
23	Reading	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.