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League Cup

Referee: L Doughty

Birmingham

U S S S S

1–3

Full-time

Cardiff

U U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,2

3,3

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

0,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — League Cup · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

2,0

4,0

Scored

2,0

Conceded

0,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

30% Possession 70%

9 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 9

0 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 13. · Cardiff 31. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+4	3
2	Reading	1	1	0	0	+4	3
3	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+2	3
4	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Newport County	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Gillingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Blackpool	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Mansfield Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Port Vale	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Exeter City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Harrogate Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Sutton Utd	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Cambridge United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Crewe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Peterborough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Swindon Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Stevenage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Walsall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Fleetwood Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Forest Green	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-4	0
73	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+4	3
2	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+2	3
3	Newport County	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Gillingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Mansfield Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Port Vale	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Exeter City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Harrogate Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Sutton Utd	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Peterborough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Stevenage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Forest Green	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	0
33	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
34	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-2	0
35	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
36	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reading	1	1	0	0	+4	3
2	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Blackpool	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Cambridge United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Crewe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Swindon Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Walsall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Fleetwood Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
33	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
34	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
35	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
36	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
37	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.