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La Liga

Referee: J Guzman

Valencia

T T S T S

3–2

Full-time

Alaves

T T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Alaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 27%

27%

Points per game

1,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

42%

Both score Ø 54%

54%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,79 xG 1,33

61% Possession 39%

19 Shots 10

8 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 2

4 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Valencia 15. · Alaves 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	27	22	1	4	+46	+33.7	67
2	Real Madrid	27	20	3	4	+33	+30.5	63
3	Ath Madrid	27	16	6	5	+21	+13.4	54
4	Villarreal	27	17	3	7	+18	+6.8	54
5	Betis	27	11	10	6	+8	+9.8	43
6	Celta	27	10	10	7	+7	+4.8	40
7	Espanol	26	10	6	10	-6	-1.9	36
8	Sociedad	27	9	8	10	-1	-2.4	35
9	Getafe	27	10	5	12	-6	-8.4	35
10	Ath Bilbao	27	10	5	12	-7	+9.4	35
11	Osasuna	27	9	7	11	+0	-4.2	34
12	Vallecano	27	7	10	10	-6	+1.7	31
13	Sevilla	27	8	7	12	-7	-14.0	31
14	Girona	27	7	10	10	-15	-7.8	31
15	Valencia	26	7	8	11	-12	-0.8	29
16	Alaves	26	7	6	13	-11	-3.2	27
17	Elche	27	5	11	11	-6	-17.5	26
18	Mallorca	27	6	7	14	-13	-17.8	25
19	Levante	27	5	7	15	-16	-13.0	22
20	Oviedo	26	3	8	15	-27	-19.1	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	13	13	0	0	+35	+22.3	39
2	Ath Madrid	14	12	1	1	+21	+17.8	37
3	Villarreal	14	11	1	2	+19	+7.0	34
4	Real Madrid	13	11	0	2	+20	+19.6	33
5	Osasuna	13	7	4	2	+8	+4.6	25
6	Betis	13	7	3	3	+10	+7.5	24
7	Ath Bilbao	14	7	2	5	+1	+10.7	23
8	Elche	14	5	7	2	+7	-2.1	22
9	Sociedad	13	6	3	4	+4	+1.7	21
10	Valencia	13	5	5	3	+3	+9.4	20
11	Espanol	13	6	2	5	-2	-0.0	20
12	Vallecano	13	4	7	2	+5	+8.8	19
13	Mallorca	13	5	4	4	+2	-0.2	19
14	Alaves	13	5	4	4	+1	+1.2	19
15	Getafe	14	5	3	6	+1	-3.9	18
16	Celta	14	4	5	5	+3	+5.5	17
17	Sevilla	14	4	4	6	-1	-3.5	16
18	Girona	13	4	4	5	-8	-6.7	16
19	Oviedo	13	2	5	6	-9	-9.2	11
20	Levante	14	2	5	7	-10	-7.0	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	14	9	3	2	+13	+11.0	30
2	Barcelona	14	9	1	4	+11	+11.4	28
3	Celta	13	6	5	2	+4	-0.7	23
4	Villarreal	13	6	2	5	-1	-0.2	20
5	Betis	14	4	7	3	-2	+2.2	19
6	Ath Madrid	13	4	5	4	+0	-4.4	17
7	Getafe	13	5	2	6	-7	-4.6	17
8	Espanol	13	4	4	5	-4	-1.9	16
9	Sevilla	13	4	3	6	-6	-10.5	15
10	Girona	14	3	6	5	-7	-1.1	15
11	Sociedad	14	3	5	6	-5	-4.0	14
12	Ath Bilbao	13	3	3	7	-8	-1.3	12
13	Vallecano	14	3	3	8	-11	-7.0	12
14	Levante	13	3	2	8	-6	-6.1	11
15	Osasuna	14	2	3	9	-8	-8.8	9
16	Valencia	13	2	3	8	-15	-10.2	9
17	Alaves	13	2	2	9	-12	-4.3	8
18	Mallorca	14	1	3	10	-15	-17.6	6
19	Oviedo	13	1	3	9	-18	-9.9	6
20	Elche	13	0	4	9	-13	-15.4	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.