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Serie B

Referee: Mario Perri

Spezia

T U T S S

0–2

Full-time

Modena

S U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Modena

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,0

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 34%

20%

47%

Points per game

0,9

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

33%

47%

Both score Ø 50%

53%

47%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

0,9

1,5

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,56 xG 4,07

59% Possession 41%

7 Shots 28

3 Shots on target 10

1 Blocked shots 8

8 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 9

0 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 24

4 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 17. · Modena 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	15	9	4	2	+16	+5.8	31
2	Monza	15	9	4	2	+11	+5.5	31
3	Palermo	16	8	5	3	+14	+1.9	29
4	Cesena	15	8	3	4	+6	+0.9	27
5	Venezia	15	7	5	3	+13	+8.6	26
6	Modena	15	7	5	3	+11	+3.1	26
7	Catanzaro	15	5	7	3	+3	-1.2	22
8	Empoli	15	5	5	5	+2	+3.2	20
9	Reggiana	15	5	5	5	+0	+0.5	20
10	Avellino	15	5	5	5	-8	-5.4	20
11	Juve Stabia	15	4	7	4	-4	-3.1	19
12	Padova	15	4	6	5	-3	-2.2	18
13	Carrarese	15	3	7	5	-4	-5.8	16
14	Virtus Entella	15	3	6	6	-7	-4.2	15
15	Bari	15	3	6	6	-11	-3.2	15
16	Sudtirol	15	2	8	5	-4	-2.5	14
17	Spezia	15	3	5	7	-6	+3.8	14
18	Mantova	15	4	2	9	-10	-0.4	14
19	Sampdoria	16	3	4	9	-8	-0.6	13
20	Pescara	15	1	7	7	-11	-4.5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monza	8	6	1	1	+6	+0.5	19
2	Venezia	7	6	0	1	+13	+3.8	18
3	Palermo	9	5	3	1	+11	+4.5	18
4	Modena	8	5	2	1	+9	+1.7	17
5	Frosinone	7	4	2	1	+10	+2.9	14
6	Empoli	9	3	5	1	+6	+2.8	14
7	Juve Stabia	7	3	4	0	+4	-0.9	13
8	Virtus Entella	8	3	4	1	+3	-1.4	13
9	Catanzaro	8	3	4	1	+2	+0.2	13
10	Reggiana	7	3	3	1	+4	-0.4	12
11	Bari	7	3	3	1	+2	-1.2	12
12	Cesena	6	3	2	1	+4	+1.4	11
13	Sampdoria	8	3	2	3	+1	+2.5	11
14	Avellino	7	3	2	2	-3	-3.9	11
15	Mantova	8	3	1	4	-4	+2.5	10
16	Carrarese	7	2	3	2	+1	-1.5	9
17	Pescara	8	1	4	3	-1	-2.9	7
18	Sudtirol	7	2	1	4	-1	-0.9	7
19	Padova	7	1	4	2	-2	-1.3	7
20	Spezia	8	1	3	4	-5	+1.9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	8	5	2	1	+6	+2.9	17
2	Cesena	9	5	1	3	+2	-0.5	16
3	Monza	7	3	3	1	+5	+5.0	12
4	Palermo	7	3	2	2	+3	-2.6	11
5	Padova	8	3	2	3	-1	-1.0	11
6	Modena	7	2	3	2	+2	+1.4	9
7	Catanzaro	7	2	3	2	+1	-1.4	9
8	Avellino	8	2	3	3	-5	-1.5	9
9	Venezia	8	1	5	2	+0	+4.8	8
10	Spezia	7	2	2	3	-1	+2.0	8
11	Reggiana	8	2	2	4	-4	+0.9	8
12	Sudtirol	8	0	7	1	-3	-1.6	7
13	Carrarese	8	1	4	3	-5	-4.3	7
14	Empoli	6	2	0	4	-4	+0.4	6
15	Juve Stabia	8	1	3	4	-8	-2.1	6
16	Mantova	7	1	1	5	-6	-2.9	4
17	Pescara	7	0	3	4	-10	-1.6	3
18	Bari	8	0	3	5	-13	-2.0	3
19	Sampdoria	8	0	2	6	-9	-3.1	2
20	Virtus Entella	7	0	2	5	-10	-2.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.