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Championship

Referee: T Robinson

Swansea

S S U S S

2–1

Full-time

Derby

S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,3

This season — Championship · 41/42 matches

Win Ø 36%

41%

31%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

54%

38%

Both score Ø 46%

41%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,1

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

54% Possession 46%

10 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 11. · Derby 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	41	27	8	6	+63	89
2	Bournemouth	41	21	12	8	+27	75
3	Sheffield United	41	20	9	12	+18	69
4	Huddersfield	40	19	12	9	+14	69
5	Luton	41	19	11	11	+17	68
6	Middlesbrough	41	20	8	13	+17	68
7	Blackburn	41	18	11	12	+14	65
8	West Brom	42	17	12	13	+11	63
9	Nott'm Forest	36	18	8	10	+23	62
10	Coventry	42	17	11	14	+7	62
11	Swansea	41	17	9	15	-2	60
12	Preston	42	15	15	12	-2	60
13	QPR	42	17	8	17	+0	59
14	Millwall	41	15	13	13	+1	58
15	Stoke	42	15	11	16	+6	56
16	Blackpool	40	15	10	15	-1	55
17	Derby	42	13	13	16	-6	52
18	Cardiff	41	14	8	19	-11	50
19	Bristol City	42	13	9	20	-20	48
20	Reading	42	13	8	21	-26	47
21	Birmingham	42	11	13	18	-18	46
22	Hull	42	12	8	22	-10	44
23	Barnsley	40	6	12	22	-26	30
24	Peterboro	41	6	10	25	-48	28
25	Peterborough	40	6	9	25	-48	27

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	20	13	4	3	+30	43
2	Blackburn	21	13	4	4	+18	43
3	Middlesbrough	20	13	2	5	+14	41
4	Sheffield United	20	12	4	4	+23	40
5	West Brom	20	11	7	2	+17	40
6	Derby	21	11	7	3	+11	40
7	Bournemouth	20	11	6	3	+18	39
8	Luton	20	11	5	4	+16	38
9	Coventry	22	11	5	6	+13	38
10	Huddersfield	19	11	5	3	+12	38
11	Nott'm Forest	20	11	3	6	+13	36
12	Millwall	20	10	6	4	+9	36
13	Blackpool	22	11	3	8	+2	36
14	Stoke	21	10	4	7	+9	34
15	Preston	20	8	9	3	+5	33
16	QPR	22	9	6	7	+4	33
17	Swansea	19	9	5	5	+6	32
18	Bristol City	21	7	7	7	-1	28
19	Reading	21	8	4	9	-7	28
20	Cardiff	22	8	3	11	-2	27
21	Birmingham	21	7	6	8	-3	27
22	Barnsley	20	5	7	8	-5	22
23	Peterboro	20	4	7	9	-11	19
24	Peterborough	20	4	7	9	-11	19
25	Hull	21	5	3	13	-11	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	21	14	4	3	+33	46
2	Bournemouth	21	10	6	5	+9	36
3	Huddersfield	21	8	7	6	+2	31
4	Luton	21	8	6	7	+1	30
5	Sheffield United	21	8	5	8	-5	29
6	Swansea	22	8	4	10	-8	28
7	Middlesbrough	21	7	6	8	+3	27
8	Preston	22	7	6	9	-7	27
9	Nott'm Forest	16	7	5	4	+10	26
10	Hull	21	7	5	9	+1	26
11	QPR	20	8	2	10	-4	26
12	Coventry	20	6	6	8	-6	24
13	West Brom	22	6	5	11	-6	23
14	Cardiff	19	6	5	8	-9	23
15	Stoke	21	5	7	9	-3	22
16	Blackburn	20	5	7	8	-4	22
17	Millwall	21	5	7	9	-8	22
18	Bristol City	21	6	2	13	-19	20
19	Blackpool	18	4	7	7	-3	19
20	Birmingham	21	4	7	10	-15	19
21	Reading	21	5	4	12	-19	19
22	Derby	21	2	6	13	-17	12
23	Peterboro	21	2	3	16	-37	9
24	Barnsley	20	1	5	14	-21	8
25	Peterborough	20	2	2	16	-37	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.