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Championship

Referee: M Donohue

Swansea

S U S T U

2–3

Full-time

Derby

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,3

3,3

Scored

0,7

2,2

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,0

This season — Championship · 28/30 matches

Win Ø 38%

43%

33%

Points per game

1,6

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

43%

47%

Both score Ø 54%

57%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

49% Possession 51%

16 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 7. · Derby 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	30	15	11	4	+20	56
2	Leeds	30	16	7	7	+19	55
3	Fulham	28	15	6	7	+14	51
4	Nott'm Forest	30	14	9	7	+11	51
5	Preston	31	14	8	9	+9	50
6	Bristol City	31	14	8	9	+2	50
7	Swansea	28	12	10	6	+6	46
8	Millwall	30	11	12	7	+3	45
9	Sheffield Weds	31	12	8	11	+7	44
10	Blackburn	30	12	8	10	+6	44
11	Cardiff	29	10	12	7	-1	42
12	Brentford	27	12	5	10	+20	41
13	Derby	30	10	10	10	-4	40
14	Birmingham	31	11	7	13	-8	40
15	Hull	30	11	6	13	-1	39
16	Reading	30	10	8	12	+2	38
17	QPR	30	11	5	14	-7	38
18	Middlesbrough	30	8	12	10	-7	36
19	Charlton	30	8	9	13	-3	33
20	Huddersfield	30	8	8	14	-13	32
21	Stoke	30	9	4	17	-10	31
22	Wigan	31	7	8	16	-17	29
23	Barnsley	31	5	10	16	-20	25
24	Luton	30	7	3	20	-28	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	16	10	3	3	+13	33
2	Derby	16	9	5	2	+12	32
3	Fulham	16	10	2	4	+11	32
4	Cardiff	14	8	5	1	+10	29
5	Millwall	14	8	4	2	+9	28
6	Leeds	15	8	4	3	+9	28
7	West Brom	15	7	6	2	+12	27
8	Blackburn	15	7	6	2	+6	27
9	Middlesbrough	16	6	7	3	+1	25
10	Swansea	14	7	3	4	+6	24
11	Nott'm Forest	14	7	3	4	+3	24
12	Charlton	16	6	5	5	+3	23
13	Sheffield Weds	15	6	5	4	-1	23
14	QPR	16	6	4	6	+1	22
15	Bristol City	15	6	4	5	+0	22
16	Brentford	12	6	3	3	+12	21
17	Birmingham	15	6	3	6	+0	21
18	Hull	16	6	2	8	-1	20
19	Reading	14	6	1	7	+1	19
20	Barnsley	16	4	7	5	-5	19
21	Wigan	15	5	4	6	-5	19
22	Luton	14	5	3	6	-1	18
23	Stoke	15	5	3	7	-1	18
24	Huddersfield	15	4	5	6	-5	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	15	8	5	2	+8	29
2	Bristol City	16	8	4	4	+2	28
3	Leeds	15	8	3	4	+10	27
4	Nott'm Forest	16	7	6	3	+8	27
5	Swansea	14	5	7	2	+0	22
6	Sheffield Weds	16	6	3	7	+8	21
7	Brentford	15	6	2	7	+8	20
8	Fulham	12	5	4	3	+3	19
9	Reading	16	4	7	5	+1	19
10	Hull	14	5	4	5	+0	19
11	Birmingham	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Blackburn	15	5	2	8	+0	17
13	Preston	15	4	5	6	-4	17
14	Millwall	16	3	8	5	-6	17
15	QPR	14	5	1	8	-8	16
16	Huddersfield	15	4	3	8	-8	15
17	Stoke	15	4	1	10	-9	13
18	Cardiff	15	2	7	6	-11	13
19	Middlesbrough	14	2	5	7	-8	11
20	Charlton	14	2	4	8	-6	10
21	Wigan	16	2	4	10	-12	10
22	Derby	14	1	5	8	-16	8
23	Barnsley	15	1	3	11	-15	6
24	Luton	16	2	0	14	-27	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.