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Championship

Referee: D Bond

Swansea

S S U T U

2–1

Full-time

Derby

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,0

This season — Championship · 41/44 matches

Win Ø 37%

49%

25%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

32%

Both score Ø 36%

39%

32%

Average goals

2,0

1,9

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

0,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

57% Possession 43%

4 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 6

3 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 6. · Derby 22. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	44	28	9	7	+36	93
2	Watford	44	26	10	8	+33	88
3	Bournemouth	42	22	11	9	+32	77
4	Barnsley	42	23	8	11	+14	77
5	Brentford	41	20	14	7	+31	74
6	Swansea	41	20	10	11	+14	70
7	Reading	44	19	12	13	+11	69
8	Cardiff	44	17	13	14	+13	64
9	Middlesbrough	44	18	9	17	+5	63
10	QPR	44	17	11	16	-2	62
11	Luton	43	17	9	17	-9	60
12	Millwall	44	14	17	13	-3	59
13	Stoke	44	14	15	15	-2	57
14	Preston	44	16	7	21	-10	55
15	Blackburn	44	14	11	19	+8	53
16	Nott'm Forest	45	12	16	17	-7	52
17	Birmingham	44	13	13	18	-17	52
18	Bristol City	44	15	6	23	-17	51
19	Coventry	44	13	12	19	-17	51
20	Huddersfield	44	12	11	21	-21	47
21	Sheffield Weds	45	12	10	23	-21	46
22	Derby	44	11	10	23	-21	43
23	Rotherham	43	11	6	26	-16	39
24	Wycombe	44	9	10	25	-34	37

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	22	18	2	2	+30	56
2	Norwich	22	13	6	3	+21	45
3	Bournemouth	21	13	3	5	+19	42
4	Barnsley	21	12	5	4	+10	41
5	Reading	22	12	3	7	+10	39
6	Brentford	20	10	8	2	+16	38
7	Middlesbrough	22	11	4	7	+8	37
8	Swansea	21	10	6	5	+8	36
9	QPR	22	10	4	8	+3	34
10	Coventry	22	9	7	6	+3	34
11	Sheffield Weds	23	8	8	7	+5	32
12	Stoke	22	9	5	8	+3	32
13	Blackburn	22	8	7	7	+6	31
14	Luton	21	8	7	6	+2	31
15	Huddersfield	22	8	6	8	+5	30
16	Cardiff	22	8	5	9	+11	29
17	Millwall	22	6	10	6	-3	28
18	Nott'm Forest	22	6	8	8	-2	26
19	Derby	22	6	6	10	-6	24
20	Bristol City	22	7	3	12	-10	24
21	Preston	22	6	5	11	-5	23
22	Wycombe	22	6	5	11	-12	23
23	Birmingham	22	6	4	12	-15	22
24	Rotherham	22	5	3	14	-9	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	22	15	3	4	+15	48
2	Brentford	21	10	6	5	+15	36
3	Barnsley	21	11	3	7	+4	36
4	Bournemouth	21	9	8	4	+13	35
5	Cardiff	22	9	8	5	+2	35
6	Swansea	20	10	4	6	+6	34
7	Watford	22	8	8	6	+3	32
8	Preston	22	10	2	10	-5	32
9	Millwall	22	8	7	7	+0	31
10	Reading	22	7	9	6	+1	30
11	Birmingham	22	7	9	6	-2	30
12	Luton	22	9	2	11	-11	29
13	QPR	22	7	7	8	-5	28
14	Bristol City	22	8	3	11	-7	27
15	Middlesbrough	22	7	5	10	-3	26
16	Nott'm Forest	23	6	8	9	-5	26
17	Stoke	22	5	10	7	-5	25
18	Blackburn	22	6	4	12	+2	22
19	Rotherham	21	6	3	12	-7	21
20	Derby	22	5	4	13	-15	19
21	Coventry	22	4	5	13	-20	17
22	Huddersfield	22	4	5	13	-26	17
23	Wycombe	22	3	5	14	-22	14
24	Sheffield Weds	22	4	2	16	-26	14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.