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Championship

Referee: A Madley

Bournemouth

S S T U U

2–0

Full-time

Derby

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bournemouth Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

100%

17%

Average goals

2,8

1,5

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

This season — Championship · 35/38 matches

Win Ø 42%

51%

32%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

51%

39%

Both score Ø 51%

51%

50%

Average goals

2,4

2,1

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%

14 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 4

1 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 6

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bournemouth 3. · Derby 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	38	25	8	5	+61	83
2	Huddersfield	37	18	12	7	+18	66
3	Bournemouth	35	18	10	7	+23	64
4	Sheffield United	35	18	7	10	+19	61
5	Blackburn	37	17	10	10	+14	61
6	Luton	35	17	8	10	+12	59
7	Middlesbrough	36	17	7	12	+8	58
8	Coventry	37	16	9	12	+8	57
9	West Brom	38	15	11	12	+9	56
10	QPR	36	16	8	12	+8	56
11	Preston	38	14	14	10	+2	56
12	Millwall	36	14	11	11	+2	53
13	Blackpool	36	14	9	13	+2	51
14	Nott'm Forest	32	14	8	10	+12	50
15	Stoke	37	13	10	14	+5	49
16	Derby	38	12	12	14	-3	48
17	Swansea	35	13	8	14	-8	47
18	Cardiff	38	13	7	18	-8	46
19	Bristol City	37	12	7	18	-18	43
20	Birmingham	38	10	11	17	-17	41
21	Hull	38	11	7	20	-9	40
22	Reading	37	11	6	20	-24	39
23	Barnsley	37	5	11	21	-26	26
24	Peterboro	36	5	8	23	-45	23
25	Peterborough	35	5	7	23	-45	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	20	13	4	3	+30	43
2	Middlesbrough	19	13	2	4	+15	41
3	Blackburn	19	12	4	3	+17	40
4	Huddersfield	18	11	5	2	+15	38
5	Derby	19	10	6	3	+10	36
6	West Brom	18	9	7	2	+14	34
7	Luton	17	10	4	3	+13	34
8	Coventry	19	10	4	5	+12	34
9	Sheffield United	17	10	3	4	+20	33
10	QPR	19	9	6	4	+10	33
11	Bournemouth	17	9	5	3	+15	32
12	Millwall	17	9	5	3	+8	32
13	Blackpool	19	10	2	7	+4	32
14	Swansea	18	9	4	5	+6	31
15	Preston	19	7	9	3	+4	30
16	Stoke	19	8	4	7	+6	28
17	Nott'm Forest	17	8	3	6	+5	27
18	Bristol City	19	7	5	7	-1	26
19	Cardiff	19	7	2	10	+1	23
20	Birmingham	18	6	5	7	-2	23
21	Reading	19	6	4	9	-9	22
22	Peterboro	17	4	6	7	-6	18
23	Barnsley	18	4	6	8	-7	18
24	Hull	19	5	3	11	-8	18
25	Peterborough	16	4	5	7	-6	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	18	12	4	2	+31	40
2	Bournemouth	18	9	5	4	+8	32
3	Huddersfield	19	7	7	5	+3	28
4	Sheffield United	18	8	4	6	-1	28
5	Preston	19	7	5	7	-2	26
6	Luton	18	7	4	7	-1	25
7	Nott'm Forest	15	6	5	4	+7	23
8	QPR	17	7	2	8	-2	23
9	Coventry	18	6	5	7	-4	23
10	Cardiff	19	6	5	8	-9	23
11	Hull	19	6	4	9	-1	22
12	West Brom	20	6	4	10	-5	22
13	Stoke	18	5	6	7	-1	21
14	Blackburn	18	5	6	7	-3	21
15	Millwall	19	5	6	8	-6	21
16	Blackpool	17	4	7	6	-2	19
17	Birmingham	20	4	6	10	-15	18
18	Middlesbrough	17	4	5	8	-7	17
19	Reading	18	5	2	11	-15	17
20	Bristol City	18	5	2	11	-17	17
21	Swansea	17	4	4	9	-14	16
22	Derby	19	2	6	11	-13	12
23	Barnsley	19	1	5	13	-19	8
24	Peterboro	19	1	2	16	-39	5
25	Peterborough	19	1	2	16	-39	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.