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Championship

Referee: A Davies

Millwall

U U S T U

0–1

Full-time

Swansea

T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,5

3,5

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

This season — Championship · 40/40 matches

Win Ø 39%

38%

40%

Points per game

1,5

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

35%

55%

Both score Ø 48%

53%

43%

Average goals

2,1

2,6

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

32% Possession 68%

13 Shots 14

2 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 5

9 Free kicks against 5

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 12. · Swansea 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	40	26	8	6	+62	86
2	Bournemouth	39	21	11	7	+29	74
3	Huddersfield	40	19	12	9	+14	69
4	Middlesbrough	40	20	8	12	+18	68
5	Luton	40	19	10	11	+17	67
6	Sheffield United	39	19	8	12	+17	65
7	Blackburn	41	18	11	12	+14	65
8	Coventry	41	17	11	13	+9	62
9	West Brom	41	16	12	13	+9	60
10	Nott'm Forest	35	17	8	10	+21	59
11	QPR	41	17	8	16	+1	59
12	Millwall	40	15	13	12	+2	58
13	Swansea	40	16	9	15	-3	57
14	Preston	41	14	15	12	-3	57
15	Stoke	41	15	11	15	+7	56
16	Blackpool	39	15	10	14	+0	55
17	Derby	42	13	13	16	-6	52
18	Cardiff	41	14	8	19	-11	50
19	Bristol City	41	13	8	20	-20	47
20	Birmingham	42	11	13	18	-18	46
21	Hull	42	12	8	22	-10	44
22	Reading	41	12	8	21	-27	44
23	Barnsley	40	6	12	22	-26	30
24	Peterboro	40	6	9	25	-48	27
25	Peterborough	39	6	8	25	-48	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	20	13	4	3	+30	43
2	Blackburn	21	13	4	4	+18	43
3	Middlesbrough	19	13	2	4	+15	41
4	Derby	21	11	7	3	+11	40
5	Bournemouth	20	11	6	3	+18	39
6	Luton	20	11	5	4	+16	38
7	Coventry	22	11	5	6	+13	38
8	Huddersfield	19	11	5	3	+12	38
9	West Brom	19	10	7	2	+15	37
10	Sheffield United	18	11	3	4	+22	36
11	Millwall	19	10	6	3	+10	36
12	Blackpool	22	11	3	8	+2	36
13	Stoke	21	10	4	7	+9	34
14	Nott'm Forest	19	10	3	6	+11	33
15	QPR	22	9	6	7	+4	33
16	Swansea	19	9	5	5	+6	32
17	Preston	19	7	9	3	+4	30
18	Bristol City	20	7	6	7	-1	27
19	Cardiff	22	8	3	11	-2	27
20	Birmingham	21	7	6	8	-3	27
21	Reading	20	7	4	9	-8	25
22	Barnsley	20	5	7	8	-5	22
23	Peterboro	20	4	7	9	-11	19
24	Peterborough	19	4	6	9	-11	18
25	Hull	21	5	3	13	-11	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	20	13	4	3	+32	43
2	Bournemouth	19	10	5	4	+11	35
3	Huddersfield	21	8	7	6	+2	31
4	Luton	20	8	5	7	+1	29
5	Sheffield United	21	8	5	8	-5	29
6	Middlesbrough	21	7	6	8	+3	27
7	Preston	22	7	6	9	-7	27
8	Nott'm Forest	16	7	5	4	+10	26
9	Hull	21	7	5	9	+1	26
10	QPR	19	8	2	9	-3	26
11	Swansea	21	7	4	10	-9	25
12	Coventry	19	6	6	7	-4	24
13	West Brom	22	6	5	11	-6	23
14	Cardiff	19	6	5	8	-9	23
15	Stoke	20	5	7	8	-2	22
16	Blackburn	20	5	7	8	-4	22
17	Millwall	21	5	7	9	-8	22
18	Bristol City	21	6	2	13	-19	20
19	Blackpool	17	4	7	6	-2	19
20	Birmingham	21	4	7	10	-15	19
21	Reading	21	5	4	12	-19	19
22	Derby	21	2	6	13	-17	12
23	Barnsley	20	1	5	14	-21	8
24	Peterboro	20	2	2	16	-37	8
25	Peterborough	20	2	2	16	-37	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.