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Championship

Referee: G Eltringham

Derby

T S T T U

1–0

Full-time

Preston

U U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Preston

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

This season — Championship · 41/40 matches

Win Ø 32%

29%

35%

Points per game

1,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

39%

43%

Both score Ø 51%

51%

50%

Average goals

2,1

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%

22 Shots 12

13 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 11

9 Corners 5

1 Offside 5

10 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Derby 18. · Preston 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	39	25	8	6	+60	83
2	Bournemouth	38	20	11	7	+28	71
3	Huddersfield	40	19	12	9	+14	69
4	Sheffield United	38	19	8	11	+18	65
5	Luton	38	19	8	11	+17	65
6	Middlesbrough	39	19	8	12	+14	65
7	Blackburn	40	18	10	12	+14	64
8	Coventry	40	17	10	13	+9	61
9	West Brom	40	16	12	12	+10	60
10	Nott'm Forest	35	17	8	10	+21	59
11	QPR	40	17	8	15	+3	59
12	Millwall	39	15	12	12	+2	57
13	Preston	40	14	15	11	-2	57
14	Blackpool	39	15	10	14	+0	55
15	Swansea	39	15	9	15	-7	54
16	Stoke	40	14	11	15	+6	53
17	Cardiff	40	14	8	18	-7	50
18	Derby	41	12	13	16	-7	49
19	Bristol City	40	13	8	19	-19	47
20	Hull	42	12	8	22	-10	44
21	Birmingham	41	10	13	18	-19	43
22	Reading	40	12	7	21	-27	43
23	Barnsley	39	6	11	22	-26	29
24	Peterborough	38	6	8	24	-44	26
25	Peterboro	39	6	8	25	-48	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	20	13	4	3	+30	43
2	Blackburn	21	13	4	4	+18	43
3	Middlesbrough	19	13	2	4	+15	41
4	Huddersfield	19	11	5	3	+12	38
5	Luton	19	11	4	4	+16	37
6	West Brom	19	10	7	2	+15	37
7	Coventry	21	11	4	6	+13	37
8	Derby	20	10	7	3	+10	37
9	Sheffield United	18	11	3	4	+22	36
10	Bournemouth	19	10	6	3	+17	36
11	Millwall	19	10	6	3	+10	36
12	Blackpool	22	11	3	8	+2	36
13	Nott'm Forest	19	10	3	6	+11	33
14	QPR	21	9	6	6	+6	33
15	Swansea	19	9	5	5	+6	32
16	Stoke	20	9	4	7	+8	31
17	Preston	19	7	9	3	+4	30
18	Cardiff	21	8	3	10	+2	27
19	Bristol City	20	7	6	7	-1	27
20	Reading	20	7	4	9	-8	25
21	Birmingham	20	6	6	8	-4	24
22	Barnsley	19	5	6	8	-5	21
23	Peterborough	18	4	6	8	-7	18
24	Peterboro	19	4	6	9	-11	18
25	Hull	21	5	3	13	-11	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	19	12	4	3	+30	40
2	Bournemouth	19	10	5	4	+11	35
3	Huddersfield	21	8	7	6	+2	31
4	Sheffield United	20	8	5	7	-4	29
5	Luton	19	8	4	7	+1	28
6	Preston	21	7	6	8	-6	27
7	Nott'm Forest	16	7	5	4	+10	26
8	Hull	21	7	5	9	+1	26
9	QPR	19	8	2	9	-3	26
10	Middlesbrough	20	6	6	8	-1	24
11	Coventry	19	6	6	7	-4	24
12	West Brom	21	6	5	10	-5	23
13	Cardiff	19	6	5	8	-9	23
14	Stoke	20	5	7	8	-2	22
15	Swansea	20	6	4	10	-13	22
16	Blackburn	19	5	6	8	-4	21
17	Millwall	20	5	6	9	-8	21
18	Bristol City	20	6	2	12	-18	20
19	Blackpool	17	4	7	6	-2	19
20	Birmingham	21	4	7	10	-15	19
21	Reading	20	5	3	12	-19	18
22	Derby	21	2	6	13	-17	12
23	Barnsley	20	1	5	14	-21	8
24	Peterboro	20	2	2	16	-37	8
25	Peterborough	20	2	2	16	-37	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.