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Championship

Referee: G Ward

Derby

U U S U U

2–0

Full-time

Swansea

S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,3

1,7

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,7

This season — Championship · 18/17 matches

Win Ø 32%

11%

53%

Points per game

0,7

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 18%

17%

18%

Both score Ø 34%

33%

35%

Average goals

1,7

Scored

0,4

1,2

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

41% Possession 59%

11 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 23. · Swansea 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	19	10	7	2	+19	37
2	Norwich	18	11	4	3	+8	37
3	Watford	19	9	7	3	+10	34
4	Reading	18	10	3	5	+7	33
5	Swansea	17	9	5	3	+11	32
6	Brentford	18	8	7	3	+11	31
7	Stoke	19	8	6	5	+4	30
8	Bristol City	19	9	3	7	+0	30
9	Barnsley	19	8	4	7	-1	28
10	Middlesbrough	18	7	6	5	+5	27
11	Cardiff	18	7	5	6	+7	26
12	Luton	18	7	5	6	-3	26
13	Blackburn	18	7	4	7	+10	25
14	Millwall	19	5	9	5	-1	24
15	Huddersfield	18	7	3	8	-5	24
16	Preston	19	7	2	10	-4	23
17	Birmingham	18	5	7	6	-2	22
18	Coventry	18	5	6	7	-7	21
19	QPR	19	4	7	8	-8	19
20	Rotherham	18	4	4	10	-8	16
21	Nott'm Forest	19	4	4	11	-11	16
22	Sheffield Weds	19	3	6	10	-11	15
23	Derby	18	2	7	9	-14	13
24	Wycombe	19	2	5	12	-17	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	10	7	2	1	+12	23
2	Watford	10	7	2	1	+10	23
3	Middlesbrough	9	6	2	1	+10	20
4	Swansea	9	5	3	1	+7	18
5	Reading	9	6	0	3	+4	18
6	Norwich	9	5	3	1	+4	18
7	Barnsley	10	5	2	3	+2	17
8	Huddersfield	9	5	1	3	+4	16
9	Luton	9	4	3	2	+3	15
10	Coventry	9	4	3	2	-1	15
11	Blackburn	9	4	2	3	+5	14
12	Stoke	9	4	2	3	+0	14
13	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	-1	14
14	Brentford	8	3	4	1	+4	13
15	QPR	10	3	4	3	+0	13
16	Nott'm Forest	10	3	3	4	-1	12
17	Cardiff	9	3	2	4	+4	11
18	Rotherham	9	3	2	4	+1	11
19	Millwall	9	1	6	2	-2	9
20	Sheffield Weds	9	1	5	3	-2	8
21	Birmingham	9	2	2	5	-4	8
22	Preston	9	2	1	6	-5	7
23	Wycombe	9	1	3	5	-5	6
24	Derby	9	0	4	5	-10	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	9	6	1	2	+4	19
2	Brentford	10	5	3	2	+7	18
3	Stoke	10	4	4	2	+4	16
4	Preston	10	5	1	4	+1	16
5	Bristol City	9	5	1	3	+1	16
6	Reading	9	4	3	2	+3	15
7	Cardiff	9	4	3	2	+3	15
8	Millwall	10	4	3	3	+1	15
9	Bournemouth	9	3	5	1	+7	14
10	Swansea	8	4	2	2	+4	14
11	Birmingham	9	3	5	1	+2	14
12	Blackburn	9	3	2	4	+5	11
13	Watford	9	2	5	2	+0	11
14	Barnsley	9	3	2	4	-3	11
15	Luton	9	3	2	4	-6	11
16	Derby	9	2	3	4	-4	9
17	Huddersfield	9	2	2	5	-9	8
18	Middlesbrough	9	1	4	4	-5	7
19	Sheffield Weds	10	2	1	7	-9	7
20	Coventry	9	1	3	5	-6	6
21	QPR	9	1	3	5	-8	6
22	Rotherham	9	1	2	6	-9	5
23	Wycombe	10	1	2	7	-12	5
24	Nott'm Forest	9	1	1	7	-10	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.