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Championship

Referee: J Gillett

Middlesbrough

T U U T U

0–1

Full-time

Luton

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

This season — Championship · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

38%

78%

Both score Ø 57%

50%

63%

Average goals

2,4

3,3

Scored

1,1

1,2

Conceded

1,3

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

58% Possession 42%

7 Shots 10

0 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 4

8 Corners 9

1 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 18. · Luton 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	33	17	12	4	+23	63
2	Leeds	32	16	8	8	+17	56
3	Fulham	30	16	7	7	+15	55
4	Nott'm Forest	33	15	10	8	+12	55
5	Preston	32	15	8	9	+11	53
6	Bristol City	32	15	8	9	+3	53
7	Swansea	31	12	12	7	+5	48
8	Cardiff	31	12	12	7	+3	48
9	Blackburn	32	13	8	11	+8	47
10	Millwall	32	11	13	8	+1	46
11	Brentford	29	13	6	10	+21	45
12	Sheffield Weds	32	12	8	12	+6	44
13	Derby	32	11	10	11	-4	43
14	Birmingham	32	12	7	13	-7	43
15	Hull	33	11	8	14	-4	41
16	Reading	32	10	9	13	+1	39
17	QPR	32	11	6	15	-9	39
18	Middlesbrough	32	8	13	11	-8	37
19	Charlton	32	9	9	14	-4	36
20	Huddersfield	32	9	8	15	-14	35
21	Stoke	32	10	4	18	-10	34
22	Wigan	32	7	9	16	-17	30
23	Luton	32	8	3	21	-28	27
24	Barnsley	32	5	10	17	-21	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	16	10	3	3	+13	33
2	Derby	16	9	5	2	+12	32
3	Fulham	16	10	2	4	+11	32
4	Blackburn	17	8	6	3	+8	30
5	Cardiff	14	8	5	1	+10	29
6	Millwall	16	8	5	3	+7	29
7	West Brom	16	7	7	2	+12	28
8	Leeds	15	8	4	3	+9	28
9	Nott'm Forest	16	8	3	5	+4	27
10	Brentford	14	7	4	3	+13	25
11	Swansea	16	7	4	5	+5	25
12	Bristol City	16	7	4	5	+1	25
13	Middlesbrough	16	6	7	3	+1	25
14	Charlton	16	6	5	5	+3	23
15	Sheffield Weds	15	6	5	4	-1	23
16	QPR	16	6	4	6	+1	22
17	Birmingham	15	6	3	6	+0	21
18	Hull	17	6	3	8	-1	21
19	Luton	16	6	3	7	-1	21
20	Stoke	17	6	3	8	-1	21
21	Reading	16	6	2	8	+0	20
22	Wigan	16	5	5	6	-5	20
23	Huddersfield	17	5	5	7	-6	20
24	Barnsley	17	4	7	6	-6	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	17	10	5	2	+11	35
2	Leeds	17	8	4	5	+8	28
3	Nott'm Forest	17	7	7	3	+8	28
4	Bristol City	16	8	4	4	+2	28
5	Fulham	14	6	5	3	+4	23
6	Swansea	15	5	8	2	+0	23
7	Birmingham	17	6	4	7	-7	22
8	Sheffield Weds	17	6	3	8	+7	21
9	Brentford	15	6	2	7	+8	20
10	Preston	16	5	5	6	-2	20
11	Hull	16	5	5	6	-3	20
12	Reading	16	4	7	5	+1	19
13	Cardiff	17	4	7	6	-7	19
14	Blackburn	15	5	2	8	+0	17
15	Millwall	16	3	8	5	-6	17
16	QPR	16	5	2	9	-10	17
17	Huddersfield	15	4	3	8	-8	15
18	Charlton	16	3	4	9	-7	13
19	Stoke	15	4	1	10	-9	13
20	Middlesbrough	16	2	6	8	-9	12
21	Derby	16	2	5	9	-16	11
22	Wigan	16	2	4	10	-12	10
23	Barnsley	15	1	3	11	-15	6
24	Luton	16	2	0	14	-27	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.