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2. Bundesliga

Referee: D Aytekin

Holstein Kiel

U S T U U

4–2

Full-time

Hamburg

U S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Holstein Kiel Hamburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,7

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,8

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 54%

50%

58%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

3,1

Scored

1,6

2,0

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

38% Possession 62%

16 Shots 15

8 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 6

7 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Holstein Kiel 6. · Hamburg 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	St Pauli	13	7	6	0	+15	27
2	Hamburg	12	7	3	2	+11	24
3	Hannover	13	6	4	3	+11	22
4	Fortuna Dusseldorf	12	6	3	3	+10	21
5	Elversberg	13	6	3	4	+0	21
6	Holstein Kiel	12	6	2	4	+0	20
7	Greuther Furth	12	5	3	4	+3	18
8	Kaiserslautern	12	5	3	4	+1	18
9	Wehen	12	5	3	4	+1	18
10	Paderborn	12	5	3	4	+0	18
11	Nurnberg	12	5	3	4	-2	18
12	Hertha	12	5	1	6	+2	16
13	Magdeburg	12	3	4	5	-1	13
14	Hansa Rostock	12	4	1	7	-6	13
15	Schalke 04	13	4	1	8	-8	13
16	Karlsruhe	12	3	3	6	-4	12
17	Osnabruck	12	1	4	7	-16	7
18	Braunschweig	12	1	2	9	-17	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hamburg	6	6	0	0	+12	18
2	St Pauli	7	4	3	0	+11	15
3	Hannover	6	4	1	1	+11	13
4	Greuther Furth	6	4	1	1	+9	13
5	Kaiserslautern	7	4	1	2	+4	13
6	Nurnberg	6	3	2	1	+3	11
7	Fortuna Dusseldorf	7	3	2	2	+1	11
8	Hansa Rostock	7	3	1	3	-1	10
9	Hertha	5	3	0	2	+8	9
10	Schalke 04	6	3	0	3	+1	9
11	Wehen	6	2	3	1	+0	9
12	Magdeburg	5	2	2	1	+2	8
13	Paderborn	5	2	2	1	+2	8
14	Karlsruhe	6	2	2	2	+0	8
15	Holstein Kiel	6	2	1	3	-3	7
16	Elversberg	6	2	1	3	-4	7
17	Osnabruck	7	1	2	4	-4	5
18	Braunschweig	6	1	2	3	-5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Elversberg	7	4	2	1	+4	14
2	Holstein Kiel	6	4	1	1	+3	13
3	St Pauli	6	3	3	0	+4	12
4	Fortuna Dusseldorf	5	3	1	1	+9	10
5	Paderborn	7	3	1	3	-2	10
6	Wehen	6	3	0	3	+1	9
7	Hannover	7	2	3	2	+0	9
8	Nurnberg	6	2	1	3	-5	7
9	Hertha	7	2	1	4	-6	7
10	Hamburg	6	1	3	2	-1	6
11	Magdeburg	7	1	2	4	-3	5
12	Kaiserslautern	5	1	2	2	-3	5
13	Greuther Furth	6	1	2	3	-6	5
14	Karlsruhe	6	1	1	4	-4	4
15	Schalke 04	7	1	1	5	-9	4
16	Hansa Rostock	5	1	0	4	-5	3
17	Osnabruck	5	0	2	3	-12	2
18	Braunschweig	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.